Will Ethereum's market capitalization exceed Bitcoin's market capitalization by the end of 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (179D) ]
Ethereum flipped in 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethereum flipped in 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 100.0% | $735 | $499K | C | 0xcbca49…4e32 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | Coingecko (consensus fallback) | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ethereum (ETH) is not the second or first largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization at any point between January 1, and December 31, 2026 ET, according to CoinGecko. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be CoinGecko. If CoinGecko becomes permanently unavailable, another credible source will be chosen. If there is ambiguity, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolution_source → "Coingecko (consensus fallback)" resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Ethereum flipped in 2026? | polymarket | 2027-01-01 | 100% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/eth-flipped-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/eth-flipped-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("eth-flipped-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-FHL83M8ZC5",
"slug": "eth-flipped-in-2026",
"question": "Will Ethereum's market capitalization exceed Bitcoin's market capitalization by the end of 2026?",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"ethereum",
"crypto",
"market-cap-flip",
"bitcoin-comparison",
"altseason",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 498860,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 57,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": "Coingecko (consensus fallback)",
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}