Will Eurozone annual inflation be below 2% in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-19 (168D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 1% | 2027-01-19 | 1.3% | $40 | $2.4K | A | 0xc97f91…1912 | ||
| ≥ 1% | 2027-01-19 | 0.3% | $40 | $2.7K | A | 0x4efa52…be70 | ||
| ≥ 1.3% | 2027-01-19 | 0.4% | $40 | $3.8K | A | 0x959f46…fac7 | ||
| ≥ 1.6% | 2027-01-19 | 5.3% | $40 | $3.1K | A | 0x7cddc2…a384 | ||
| ≥ 1.9% | 2027-01-19 | 0.8% | $40 | $4.6K | A | 0xddb02d…dbe6 | ||
| ≥ 2.2% | 2027-01-19 | 6.6% | $40 | $3.8K | A | 0xbeb692…3c82 | ||
| ≥ 2.5% | 2027-01-19 | 0.5% | $89 | $6.9K | A | 0x2178a8…3b5d | ||
| ≥ 2.8% | 2027-01-19 | 12.4% | $120 | $15K | A | 0xeef7fe…d929 | ||
| ≥ 3.1% | 2027-01-19 | 65.5% | $74 | $9.3K | A | 0x5fd7fb…91c5 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the Eurozone over the 12-month period ending December 2026 as reported by Eurostat.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly Eurostat report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 19, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report on the Eurostat website (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/) by selecting the "Database" option from the "Data" dropdown, opening the "Data navigation tree" folder, then the "Economy and finance" folder, then the "Prices (prc)" folder, then the "Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) (prc_hicp)" folder, and opening the file named "HICP - monthly data (annual rate of change) (prc_hicp_manr)". The relevant figure can be found in the column for the relevant month in the row marked "Euro area - 20 countries (from 2023)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Eurostat HICP news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/release-calendar or https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/statscal/ges/html/sthicp.en.html
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/ sources (7) · single authority
ec.europa.eu venue-listed ec.europa.eu venue-listed ecb.europa.eu venue-listed Eurostat committed source ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/ from rules text ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/release-calendar from rules text ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/statscal/ges/html/sthicp.en.html from rules text
recent wire items
- ECB's 2% target band stays a long shot on Polymarket 1% · $21K 24h
- Polymarket prices the ECB's exact 2% band at just 1%, the market sees a near-zero chance of a soft landing in that precise window.
- 24h volume of $20K represents 81% of the contract's all-time handle, signaling a sudden and concentrated burst of attention.
- Fresh positioning likely reflects new Eurozone inflation data or ECB guidance shifting expectations away from the 2% corridor.
- Contract resolves on 2026 annual Eurozone HICP print; outcome window is narrow and probability-weighted near zero.
- Low-inflation 1.0, 1.2% band draws fresh bets at long-shot odds 2% · $13K 24h
- Polymarket prices a deep-deflation corridor of 1.0, 1.2% at 2%, market assigns near-negligible probability to a sharp inflation undershoot.
- 24h volume of $12K equals 79% of all-time handle, echoing a coordinated sweep across Eurozone inflation band contracts.
- Volume surge across multiple inflation bands simultaneously points to a single macro catalyst, likely a new flash CPI or ECB communication.
- Resolves on the official 2026 annual Eurozone inflation figure; band is narrow and priced near zero.
- Traders back away from the 1.3, 1.5% Eurozone band at zero 0% · $12K 24h
- Polymarket prices the 1.3, 1.5% inflation band at 0%, fully ruled out by current market consensus.
- 24h volume of $12K is 76% of the contract's all-time total, part of a synchronized sweep across Eurozone inflation band markets.
- Zero pricing with high volume is a settlement signal: traders clearing positions or arbitrageurs confirming the band is dead.
- Resolves on 2026 annual Eurozone HICP; this band carries no residual outcome uncertainty.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/eurozone-2026-annual-inflation/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/eurozone-2026-annual-inflation |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("eurozone-2026-annual-inflation") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-BFBHD68BG8",
"slug": "eurozone-2026-annual-inflation",
"question": "Will Eurozone annual inflation be below 2% in 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"economy",
"inflation",
"eurozone",
"price-levels",
"macro-economic"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 51435,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Eurostat",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "ec.europa.eu",
"url": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ec.europa.eu",
"url": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/release-calendar",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ecb.europa.eu",
"url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/statscal/ges/html/sthicp.en.html",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Eurostat",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/release-calendar",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/statscal/ges/html/sthicp.en.html",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}