Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be above 1.5%? [ resolves 2027-01-31 (192D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 0% | 2027-01-31 | 11.3% | $48 | $1.4K | A | 0x426e80…dbcd | ||
| 0.5% | 2027-01-31 | 70.9% | $18 | $9.6K | A | 0x4c1c0c…1733 | ||
| 1.5% | 2027-01-31 | 19.0% | $18 | $4.9K | A | 0xccdda7…d9c1 | ||
| 2.5% | 2027-01-31 | 0.5% | $18 | $1.1K | A | 0xbf36de…0355 | ||
| 3.5% | 2027-01-31 | 0.2% | $18 | $970 | A | 0xca2d84…7083 | ||
| 4.5% | 2027-01-31 | 3.0% | $18 | $2.1K | A | 0x03b6de…9cb2 | ||
| 5.5% | 2027-01-31 | 0.2% | $21 | $1.1K | A | 0xfbaacf…6343 | ||
| 6.5% | 2027-01-31 | 1.8% | $18 | $2.5K | A | 0xe531b0…8c27 | ||
| ≥ 7% | 2027-01-31 | 0.5% | $18 | $1.5K | A | 0xb82431…045c |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators sources (3) · single authority
- ec.europa.eu source of record venue-listed
- ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators from rules text · editorial
- GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026 from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/eurozone-annual-gdp-growth-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/eurozone-annual-gdp-growth-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("eurozone-annual-gdp-growth-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-JR9440JZM1",
"slug": "eurozone-annual-gdp-growth-2026",
"question": "Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be above 1.5%?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"economy",
"eurozone",
"gdp-growth",
"macroeconomics",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 24984,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "ec.europa.eu",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "ec.europa.eu",
"url": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}