Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q2 2026 exceed 0.5%? [ resolves 2026-07-30 (7D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Between 0.4% and 0.7% | 2026-07-30 | 35.0% | — | $2.3K | A | 0xc72782…3127 | ||
| ≥ 0% | 2026-07-30 | 13.5% | — | $1.8K | A | 0x332795…a8f8 | ||
| Between 0.0% and 0.3% | 2026-07-30 | 10.0% | — | $3.1K | A | 0xed252b…d53c | ||
| Between 0.8% and 1.1% | 2026-07-30 | 10.0% | — | $8.0K | A | 0x4d6bde…23e7 | ||
| ≥ 2% | 2026-07-30 | 1.8% | — | $333 | A | 0x0e7854…b259 | ||
| Between 1.2% and 1.5% | 2026-07-30 | 1.2% | — | $220 | A | 0x87a5c9…da97 | ||
| Between 1.6% and 1.9% | 2026-07-30 | 1.1% | — | $311 | A | 0x005609…46b1 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the Eurozone (Euro Area 21) Q2 2026 GDP growth rate over the same quarter of the previous year (% change), based on seasonally adjusted data, in the Eurostat Preliminary Flash Estimate of GDP release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
This market’s resolution source reports GDP growth rates to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators sources (2) · single authority
- ec.europa.eu source of record venue-listed
- ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/eurozone-gdp-growth-in-q2-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/eurozone-gdp-growth-in-q2-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("eurozone-gdp-growth-in-q2-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-2KZP8ZSK32",
"slug": "eurozone-gdp-growth-in-q2-2026",
"question": "Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q2 2026 exceed 0.5%?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"economic-policy",
"economy",
"eurozone-gdp",
"quarterly-growth",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 16033,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "ec.europa.eu",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "ec.europa.eu",
"url": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}