Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in July? [ resolves 2026-07-29 (23D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps | 2026-07-29 | 0.1% | $24K | $1.33M | A | 0x3d675f…fe1a | ||
| The Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps | 2026-07-29 | 2.1% | $29K | $1.06M | A | 0x4ede07…d831 | ||
| There be no change in Fed interest rates | 2026-07-29 | 93.0% | $15K | $1.41M | A | 0x8bf1c1…ef86 | ||
| The Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps | 2026-07-29 | 4.9% | $18K | $4.06M | A | 0xb5c0ab…3793 | ||
| The Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps | 2026-07-29 | 0.3% | $4.8K | $1.55M | A | 0x2a28cc…2971 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (6) · single authority
- federalreserve.gov venue-listed
- federalreserve.gov venue-listed
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm from rules text · editorial
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm from rules text · editorial
- Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) source of record from rules text · editorial
- official website of the Federal Reserve from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Fed 50+ bps July hike fades to zero as traders absorb guidance 0% · $2.3M 24h
- 0% price means Polymarket treats a 50+ bps July Fed hike as categorically off the table.
- $2.27M in 24h, 28% of all-time, confirms broad market participation in this repricing.
- Flow likely triggered by FOMC communications, macro data, or Fed speaker remarks cementing a hold/cut bias.
- Contract resolves on the July 2026 FOMC decision exceeding 50 bps in rate increases.
- Heavy flows defend the near-zero odds on a 50 bps July cut 1% · $1.4M 24h
- Polymarket at 1%, market near-unanimously rules out a jumbo July cut.
- 24h volume $1.36M is the largest single-day flow, 28% of a deep $4.9M all-time pool.
- FOMC July meeting approaching; macro desks appear to be hedging or closing tail positions.
- A 1% handle with this volume density signals the rate path is considered highly constrained.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/fed-decision-in-july-181/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/fed-decision-in-july-181 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("fed-decision-in-july-181") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-CJQJ8SK6S4",
"slug": "fed-decision-in-july-181",
"question": "Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in July?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fomc",
"fed-rates",
"monetary-policy",
"2026",
"interest-rates"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 9404028,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "federalreserve.gov",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "federalreserve.gov",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "official website of the Federal Reserve",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}