Will the Federal Reserve make decisions between March and June? [ resolved 2026-06-17 ]

Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?

polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot

polymarket 9 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Cut–Cut–Cut	2026-03-18	0.2%	—	—	A	`0x168e73…5222`
Cut–Pause–Cut	2026-03-18	1.5%	—	—	A	`0x6b726e…533c`
Cut–Pause–Pause	2026-03-18	0.5%	—	—	A	`0x83111e…fdbf`
Cut–Cut–Pause	2026-03-18	0.1%	—	—	A	`0x7e0f54…cf4b`
Pause–Cut–Cut	2026-04-29	0.1%	—	$539K	A	`0x22ed0a…f1e3`
Pause–Cut–Pause	2026-04-29	0.1%	—	$207K	A	`0x028441…35b8`
Pause–Pause–Pause	2026-06-17	100.0%	$884	$319K	A	`0x221e0b…afd0`
Decide differently	2026-06-17	0.0%	$195	$362K	A	`0x982460…0612`
Pause–Pause–Cut	2026-06-17	0.0%	$13K	$354K	A	`0x924107…ac00`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	not provided	not provided	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 9 markets · share this text

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned

sources (4) · single authority

federalreserve.gov venue-listed
federalreserve.gov venue-listed
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm from rules text · editorial
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm from rules text · editorial

resolution history

outcome	market	venue	resolved	final price
YES	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	polymarket	`2026-06-17`	`100%`
NO	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	polymarket	`2026-06-17`	`0%`
NO	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	polymarket	`2026-06-17`	`0%`
closed	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	polymarket	`2026-04-29`	`—`
closed	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	polymarket	`2026-04-29`	`—`
closed	Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	polymarket	`2026-03-18`	`—`
closed	Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	polymarket	`2026-03-18`	`—`
closed	Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	polymarket	`2026-03-18`	`—`
closed	Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	polymarket	`2026-03-18`	`—`

Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (9 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/fed-decisions-mar-jun/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/fed-decisions-mar-jun`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("fed-decisions-mar-jun")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-LFH7SZTVZ8",
  "slug": "fed-decisions-mar-jun",
  "question": "Will the Federal Reserve make decisions between March and June?",
  "category": "economics",
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "fed",
    "fed-rates",
    "fomc",
    "monetary-policy",
    "2026"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 9,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 1780071,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 84,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": null,
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "federalreserve.gov",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "federalreserve.gov",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →