Will a Republican win the Florida House District 7 election in 2026? [ resolved 2026-11-03 ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Republican Party | 2026-11-03 | 98.0% | — | $10K | A | 0x1ca381…51dd | ||
| The Democratic Party | 2026-11-03 | 0.4% | — | $7.9K | A | 0xc55de4…bbb9 | ||
| Another party | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x1114ee…d1e5 | ||
| Will A win the FL-07 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xff3f73…d233 | ||
| Will B win the FL-07 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x66f9bd…634c | ||
| Will C win the FL-07 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xd7648f…ec8b | ||
| Will D win the FL-07 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xe64628…93f7 | ||
| Will E win the FL-07 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc19481…7363 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · stated precedence rule
recent wire items
- Republican favored in Florida House District 7 Polymarket 67%
- Polymarket prices a Republican win in Florida House District 7 at 67% as polls open.
- Trading volume surged 5,678% day-over-day, signaling sharp fresh attention on this specific district race.
- The 67% read places this seat as leaning but genuinely contested, not a lock for either party.
- Florida's 16th district Polymarket contract sits at just 26% for Republicans, revealing split market views across Florida seats on the same ballot.
- Republican win in Florida House District 7 holds favored Polymarket 67%
- Polymarket prices 67% on a Republican winning Florida House District 7, a moderate but clear lean toward the GOP.
- The noncitizen voting ruling is a flashpoint issue in Florida; markets do not appear to price a decisive swing in the district outcome from the legal controversy.
- A separate Polymarket contract on Florida's 18th House District shows 92% for the Republican candidate, illustrating significant variation in competitiveness across Florida seats.
- Resolution via UMA oracle on election night; contested results or late counts could delay settlement beyond November 3.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/fl-07-house-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/fl-07-house-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("fl-07-house-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-XFQ74FBSZ1",
"slug": "fl-07-house-election-winner",
"question": "Will a Republican win the Florida House District 7 election in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"florida",
"2026",
"house-seat",
"us-midterm"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 18050,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Election Commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "fec.gov",
"url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Election Commission",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}