Will the Republican primary winner be determined for FL-09 by 2026? [ resolved 2026-08-18 ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 21 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Green | 2026-08-18 | 100.0% | — | $1.4K | B | 0x016fbb…8a20 | ||
| Marcus Carter | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | $1.7K | B | 0x6053a4…ec82 | ||
| Thomas Chalifoux | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | $926 | $13K | B | 0xe368e5…3da1 | ||
| Jorge Malavet | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | $15 | $3.1K | B | 0x9bf024…6893 | ||
| Howard Steven Rance | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | $68 | $8.3K | B | 0x9574e0…5b7a | ||
| Justin Story | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | $5 | $8.9K | B | 0x15073e…a6fb | ||
| Ben Butler | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | $544 | B | 0xf2b0c9…5770 | ||
| Jorge Martinez | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | $145 | $2.6K | B | 0x7a97cb…3e3c | ||
| Steve Rance | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | $50 | $483 | B | 0x283246…793d | ||
| Candidate E | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x0bc43c…439b | ||
| Candidate F | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xc708b3…6878 | ||
| Candidate G | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x307ac9…0ca8 | ||
| Candidate H | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x10a171…bc63 | ||
| Candidate I | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x575264…8c24 | ||
| Candidate J | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x59aaa1…c5f6 | ||
| Candidate K | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x66feb6…796f | ||
| Candidate L | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xb607d3…f964 | ||
| Candidate M | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe17a4d…39d0 | ||
| Candidate N | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xb89280…4fb0 | ||
| Candidate O | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x6b0d16…2589 | ||
| Another candidate | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x04d31a…8f7d |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · single authority
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Marcus Carter be the Republican nominee for FL-09? | polymarket | 2026-08-19 | 0% |
| NO | Will Howard Steven Rance be the Republican nominee for FL-09? | polymarket | 2026-08-19 | 0% |
| NO | Will Justin Story be the Republican nominee for FL-09? | polymarket | 2026-08-19 | 0% |
| NO | Will Jorge Martinez be the Republican nominee for FL-09? | polymarket | 2026-08-19 | 0% |
| NO | Will Steve Rance be the Republican nominee for FL-09? | polymarket | 2026-08-19 | 0% |
| YES | Will Dan Green be the Republican nominee for FL-09? | polymarket | 2026-08-19 | 100% |
| NO | Will Jorge Malavet be the Republican nominee for FL-09? | polymarket | 2026-08-19 | 0% |
| NO | Will Thomas Chalifoux be the Republican nominee for FL-09? | polymarket | 2026-08-19 | 0% |
| NO | Will Ben Butler be the Republican nominee for FL-09? | polymarket | 2026-08-19 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (9 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Chalifoux FL-09 GOP nominee odds hold under 25% 16% · $16K 24h
- At 16%, Polymarket treats Chalifoux as a clear underdog for the FL-09 Republican nomination.
- 34% of all-time volume hit in 24 hours, the heaviest single-day flow this contract has seen.
- Volume concentration this late in a primary cycle often precedes a polling release or ballot development.
- Contract resolves on the FL-09 Republican primary result.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/fl-09-republican-primary-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/fl-09-republican-primary-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("fl-09-republican-primary-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-98VYGBFP77",
"slug": "fl-09-republican-primary-winner",
"question": "Will the Republican primary winner be determined for FL-09 by 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"florida",
"republican-primary",
"2026",
"us-house"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 21,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 39692,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 66,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.rnc.org/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "rnc.org",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "rnc.org",
"url": "https://www.rnc.org/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "https://www.rnc.org/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}