Will the Republican candidate win Florida's 26th Congressional District House election in 2026? [ resolved 2026-11-03 ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Republican Party | 2026-11-03 | 94.3% | — | $20K | B | 0x2d0d01…4861 | ||
| The Democratic Party | 2026-11-03 | 3.7% | — | $31K | B | 0xe25b0b…f328 | ||
| Another party | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x219346…939f | ||
| Will A win the FL-26 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xeed512…6f92 | ||
| Will B win the FL-26 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x1c5d76…273f | ||
| Will C win the FL-26 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x08906a…9d00 | ||
| Will D win the FL-26 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x0ba60b…b51f | ||
| Will E win the FL-26 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x1dd8ed…92e6 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · stated precedence rule
fec.gov venue-listed Federal Election Commission committed source https://www.fec.gov/ from rules text
recent wire items
- Republicans hold strong pricing on FL-26 House race 86% · $10K 24h
- Polymarket prices Republicans at 86% in FL-26, a strong but not ironclad hold on this Florida House seat.
- $10.3K in 24h equals exactly 25% of all-time volume, hitting the quarter-lifetime threshold in a single session.
- Trading on an 86%-priced contract suggests either hedgers protecting against a slim upset or new entrants backing the consensus.
- Contract resolves on the 2026 midterm FL-26 House result.
- Republican FL-26 hold at 85% draws a volume surge near 25% 85% · $10K 24h
- 85% on Polymarket prices FL-26 as a strong but not foregone Republican retention.
- 24h volume of $10K is 25% of all-time, a full quarter of lifetime activity arriving in a single session.
- Positioning into an 85% contract at this stage suggests traders are seeking yield on a near-certain outcome or reacting to candidate news.
- Resolves on the certified 2026 FL-26 House election result.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/fl-26-house-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/fl-26-house-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("fl-26-house-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-683BTN68V2",
"slug": "fl-26-house-election-winner",
"question": "Will the Republican candidate win Florida's 26th Congressional District House election in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"florida",
"house-2026",
"us-congress",
"election-outcomes"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 51710,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Election Commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "fec.gov",
"url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Election Commission",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}