CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~3,860 EVENTS / ~39,200 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate from Florida be determined by the 2026 primary election? [ resolves 2026-08-18 (14D) ]

polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 20 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
Alexander Vindman 2026-08-18 90.7%
$852 $46K
C 0xb73f32…5caf
Angie Nixon 2026-08-18 9.2%
$1.7K $7.7K
C 0xd9e428…984c
Jared Moskowitz 2026-08-18 0.5%
$437 $53K
C 0xbfdfc3…b66b
Josh Weil 2026-08-18 0.1%
$6.2K
C 0xe0f1dd…cb0d
Charlie Crist 2026-08-18 0.1%
$3.8K
C 0x970488…a64e
Alan Grayson 2026-08-18 0.1%
$2.2K
C 0xc49ce2…8724
Jennifer Jenkins 2026-08-18 0.1%
$36K
C 0x65b039…7120
Joey Atkins 2026-08-18 0.1%
$2.9K
C 0x1bbba3…2794
Candidate E 2026-08-18 0.0%
C 0xa5a777…eceb
Candidate F 2026-08-18 0.0%
C 0x24599c…ee84
Candidate G 2026-08-18 0.0%
C 0x3e3dcd…d618
Candidate H 2026-08-18 0.0%
C 0xa5ea51…d00b
Candidate I 2026-08-18 0.0%
C 0xe838d4…a1ad
Candidate J 2026-08-18 0.0%
C 0x841f2e…491f
Candidate K 2026-08-18 0.0%
C 0x5d30cd…1fb6
Candidate L 2026-08-18 0.0%
C 0x88533c…4af5
Candidate M 2026-08-18 0.0%
C 0x2c0dc3…a5b9
Candidate N 2026-08-18 0.0%
C 0xa817f4…2b7f
Candidate O 2026-08-18 0.0%
C 0x5c1eeb…55f0
Another candidate 2026-08-18 0.0%
C 0xff7818…58db
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
polymarket Whitelisted Proposers uncommitted not provided Optimistic Oracle (UMA) Other
verbatim rules
polymarket 20 markets · share this text
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Florida. If no 2026 Florida Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above
sources (2)
  • the Florida Democratic party from rules text · editorial
  • an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/florida-democratic-senate-primary-winner/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/florida-democratic-senate-primary-winner
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("florida-democratic-senate-primary-winner")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-CS6SQN76R3",
  "slug": "florida-democratic-senate-primary-winner",
  "question": "Will the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate from Florida be determined by the 2026 primary election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "florida",
    "democratic-primary",
    "senate-2026",
    "us-nominations"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 20,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 158014,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 48,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": null,
  "source_status": "no_committed_source",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "the Florida Democratic party",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →