Will the Republican Party of Florida hold their Senate primary election in 2026? [ resolves 2026-08-18 (26D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 19 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley B. Moody | 2026-08-18 | 98.3% | — | $10K | C | 0x9743ef…05d7 | ||
| Michaelangelo Hamilton | 2026-08-18 | 2.0% | — | $3.3K | C | 0x0a9c99…5c2d | ||
| A.C. Toulme | 2026-08-18 | 0.3% | — | $2.3K | C | 0x338b22…b05d | ||
| Jake Lang | 2026-08-18 | 0.2% | — | $2.0K | C | 0x81e136…0b49 | ||
| Candidate A | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb3fd8b…c994 | ||
| Candidate B | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x01ca1f…c494 | ||
| Candidate C | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe7128e…71f3 | ||
| Candidate D | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xad2b5a…cbc7 | ||
| Candidate E | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x7c2d47…29d6 | ||
| Candidate F | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa633d6…4fc1 | ||
| Candidate G | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb95953…8b7c | ||
| Candidate H | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf251bf…a1f8 | ||
| Candidate I | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2fff5e…2b71 | ||
| Candidate J | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x47974b…0b3f | ||
| Candidate K | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa9fb6a…b35d | ||
| Candidate L | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc95ae8…b7d9 | ||
| Candidate M | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbd2530…8685 | ||
| Candidate N | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xaac3cd…230a | ||
| Another candidate | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4fe32d…d9b2 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Florida.
If no 2026 Florida Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- Florida Republican party from rules text · editorial
- an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/florida-republican-senate-primary-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/florida-republican-senate-primary-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("florida-republican-senate-primary-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-CJYMDMYBM4",
"slug": "florida-republican-senate-primary-winner",
"question": "Will the Republican Party of Florida hold their Senate primary election in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"us-senate",
"florida",
"2026",
"republican-primary"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 19,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 17969,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 48,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Florida Republican party",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}