Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? [ resolves 2026-10-11 (130D) ]
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 25 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be… | 2026-10-11 | 58.0% | $1.8K | $18K | C | 0x4a8be0…ae74 | ||
| Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French… | 2026-10-11 | 12.0% | $1.2K | $30K | C | 0x4978aa…68ce | ||
| Will François Ruffin be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 5.2% | $471 | $23K | C | 0xa477ec…5c41 | ||
| Will Clémentine Autain be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French… | 2026-10-11 | 0.4% | — | $4.1K | C | 0x5d41eb…d6be | ||
| Will Benjamin Lucas-Lundy be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French… | 2026-10-11 | 0.3% | — | $344 | C | 0xa9ae53…3344 | ||
| Will Lydie Massard be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 0.1% | — | $1.7K | C | 0x21b642…3af1 | ||
| Will Placeholder C be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbc2148…294d | ||
| Will Placeholder E be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x50a0eb…1501 | ||
| Will Placeholder G be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x289b14…8f47 | ||
| Will Placeholder I be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8a1d74…efa0 | ||
| Will Placeholder K be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2c739e…6f53 | ||
| Will Placeholder M be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfdf82b…6c45 | ||
| Will any other individual be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French… | 2026-10-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5f8d3d…dc31 | ||
| Will Placeholder D be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x460a23…5a21 | ||
| Will Placeholder F be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8c79d1…ee86 | ||
| Will Placeholder H be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc02f6a…38dd | ||
| Will Placeholder J be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xcd205e…6fa9 | ||
| Will Placeholder L be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5b6fa7…1ae7 | ||
| Will Placeholder N be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x966abe…4ee0 | ||
| Will Placeholder P be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4ddcad…1720 | ||
| Will Placeholder R be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc1e353…254e | ||
| Will Placeholder T be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x41afd6…3a1b | ||
| Will Placeholder O be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x278d1e…f9de | ||
| Will Placeholder Q be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x51ec41…dce5 | ||
| Will Placeholder S be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1f7b14…a88c |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/france-united-left-primary-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/france-united-left-primary-winner.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("france-united-left-primary-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-WGPTXTJYH0",
"slug": "france-united-left-primary-winner",
"question": "Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"france",
"2026",
"primary",
"left-wing"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 25,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 76743,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 52,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}