Will Friedrich Merz no longer be Chancellor of Germany before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 7.0% | $1.1K | $397K | C | 0x176e84…f436 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
the government of Germany from rules text a consensus of credible reporting from rules text
recent wire items
- Friedrich Merz leaving German chancellorship before 2027 stays long shot Polymarket 9%
- Polymarket prices 9% on Merz no longer serving as German Chancellor before 2027.
- The surprise Kyiv visit signals Merz is actively engaged on Ukraine policy, consistent with a stable chancellorship, the 9% reflects only tail risk.
- The low odds suggest the market sees no near-term political threat to Merz's position despite the ongoing Russia-Ukraine escalation.
- No companion contract with a price is available for this story; the 9% stands as the sole market read on German leadership continuity.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-STTBFRLJQ6",
"slug": "friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-before-2027",
"question": "Will Friedrich Merz no longer be Chancellor of Germany before 2027?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"german-politics",
"chancellorship",
"executive-turnover",
"friedrich-merz",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 397003,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "the government of Germany",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}