Will Gold (GC) settle in June? [ resolved 2026-06-30 ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $3,800-$4,200 | 2026-06-30 | 100.0% | $867 | $70K | A | 0x5b8779…373b | ||
| ≤ $3,800 | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | $282 | $240K | A | 0x3f973c…5430 | ||
| $4,200-$4,600 | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | $562 | $64K | A | 0xa19142…6d45 | ||
| $4,600-$5,000 | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | $125 | $60K | A | 0x5e75c4…8c43 | ||
| $5,000-$5,400 | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | $110 | $78K | A | 0xbbf9e2…6e94 | ||
| $5,400-$5,800 | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | $108 | $67K | A | 0x74cda8…f46f | ||
| $5,800-$6,200 | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | $109 | $255K | A | 0x7130b2…2d85 | ||
| ≥ $6,200 | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | $116 | $213K | A | 0x7d4227…db94 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.settlements.html | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
platform source field
polymarket.resolution_source → "https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.settlements.html" sources (3) · single authority
- https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.settlements.html venue-listed
- CME Group website from rules text · editorial
- CME Group source of record from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| YES | Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 100% |
| NO | Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| NO | Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| NO | Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,000-$5,400 in June? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| NO | Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,400-$5,800 in June? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| NO | Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,800-$6,200 in June? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| NO | Will Gold (GC) settle at >$6,200 in June? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (8 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Gold $6,200 June settle written off with three days left 0% · $131K 24h
- Polymarket prices zero chance of GC front-month settling above $6,200 in June.
- $131K in 24h is 38% of all-time contract volume, heavy terminal flow.
- Gold spot trading well below $6,200; the level would require an unprecedented single-session move.
- Final June settlement days are imminent, volume is expiry cleanup, not a macro repricing.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/gc-settle-jun-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/gc-settle-jun-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("gc-settle-jun-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-W8SF1QWYB1",
"slug": "gc-settle-jun-2026",
"question": "Will Gold (GC) settle in June?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"commodities",
"finance",
"gold-futures",
"price-settlement",
"june-2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1046183,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.settlements.html",
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "CME Group",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.settlements.html",
"url": null,
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CME Group website",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "CME Group",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}