Will GMGN FDV be above $200M–$4B one day after launch? [ resolves 2028-01-01 (515D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $200,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | 42.0% | — | $19K | C | 0x46f40b…a722 | ||
| ≥ $300,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | 28.0% | — | $6.3K | C | 0xbccc29…3d0c | ||
| ≥ $400,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | 25.0% | — | $4.5K | C | 0x1334f9…1ac0 | ||
| ≥ $500,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | 25.0% | — | $612 | C | 0x5bce31…40b4 | ||
| ≥ $600,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | 17.0% | — | $231 | C | 0x6a61bc…c663 | ||
| ≥ $700,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | 31.0% | — | $621 | C | 0x6c5498…891b | ||
| ≥ $800,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | 3.0% | — | $474 | C | 0x82c567…24cb | ||
| ≥ $900,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | 13.0% | — | $535 | C | 0x64ab68…4012 | ||
| ≥ $1,000,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | 22.0% | — | $748 | C | 0xd8188b…0221 | ||
| ≥ $1,500,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | — | — | — | C | 0x5b9989…9eb1 | ||
| ≥ $2,000,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | — | — | — | C | 0x1f24cf…51ed | ||
| ≥ $3,000,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | — | — | — | C | 0xbb3af7…5ca5 | ||
| ≥ $4,000,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | 2.0% | — | $774 | C | 0x8c99cc…4507 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of GMGN's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."
Only an official token launched by GMGN will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.
The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch.
The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.
"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If GMGN (https://x.com/gmgnai) doesn't launch a token by January 1, 2028, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://x.com/gmgnai sources (2)
- x.com venue-listed
- x.com/gmgnai from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/gmgn-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/gmgn-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("gmgn-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-CTBRWN0Y50",
"slug": "gmgn-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch",
"question": "Will GMGN FDV be above ___ one day after launch?",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"token-launch",
"fdv-valuation",
"gmgn",
"2028"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 33985,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 38,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://x.com/gmgnai",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "x.com",
"url": "https://x.com/gmgnai",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "x.com/gmgnai",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}