Will the Iowa gubernatorial election result be determined by January 14, 2027? [ resolves 2027-01-14 (163D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | US State Governments | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Iowa pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "US State Governments" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
US State Governments committed source
recent wire items
- Democrats' Iowa governor bid holds strong at 88% 88% · $238K 24h
- Kalshi prices Democrats at 88%, market treats a GOP upset as a distant tail risk.
- $238K traded in 24h, equal to 36% of all-time volume, signaling a sharp wave of fresh attention.
- Late-cycle Iowa engagement suggests polling or campaign news is pulling traders back to this race.
- Resolves on Iowa gubernatorial election outcome.
- Democrats hold a strong Iowa governor lead at 88% 88% · $239K 24h
- Kalshi prices Democrats winning Iowa's governorship at 88%, a heavy favorite read.
- 24h volume hit $239K, equal to 36% of all-time handle, marking the contract's single busiest session.
- Late-cycle Iowa governor attention at this odds level suggests fresh money is backing a near-settled outcome.
- Contract resolves on Iowa 2026 gubernatorial election result.
- Iowa governor odds slip to 13% as GOP betting picks up 13% · $35K 24h
- Kalshi prices Republican win at 13%, a steep underdog read in a state trending competitive.
- 39% of all-time volume arrived in 24h, indicating a meaningful spike in trader attention.
- Fresh activity may reflect a recent poll, candidate announcement, or early-cycle positioning.
- Gubernatorial race resolution tied to 2026 election cycle results.
- Iowa governor odds price a long-shot Democratic upset on Kalshi 13% · $36K 24h
- Kalshi prices Republicans at 13%, an unusually low figure that implies the market is pricing a strong likelihood of a Democratic win in Iowa.
- $36K in 24h volume equals 40% of all-time, a sharp burst of activity on a contract that had been dormant.
- A 13% Republican price in a historically red state points to fresh information, a weak candidate, a scandal, or a late primary shift, driving reassessment.
- Resolves on the Iowa gubernatorial election result, November 2026.
- Iowa governor stays a long shot for Democrats at 13% 13% · $33K 24h
- Kalshi prices Republicans as overwhelming Iowa governor favorites, Democrats at just 13%.
- 38% of all-time volume arrived in 24 hours, an outsized session for a lopsided contract.
- Fresh volume on a heavily skewed market may reflect hedging or a speculative bet on a surprise.
- Resolves on the Iowa gubernatorial election result.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/govpartyia-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/govpartyia-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("govpartyia-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-8D7ZTR8991",
"slug": "govpartyia-26",
"question": "Will the Iowa gubernatorial election result be determined by January 14, 2027?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"2027-election",
"iowa-politics",
"us-governor",
"gubernatorial-race",
"partisan-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 163336,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "US State Governments",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.usa.gov/state-governments",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "US State Governments",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "US State Governments",
"url": "https://www.usa.gov/state-governments",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}