Texas Governor winner? [ resolves 2026-11-04 (92D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | US State Governments | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Texas pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "US State Governments" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
US State Governments committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Texas | kalshi | 2026-11-04 | 100% |
| NO | Will the Republican party win the governorship in Texas | kalshi | 2026-11-04 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Texas GOP governor odds hold at 67% through fresh trading 67% · $2.5M 24h
- At 67%, the market treats a Republican Texas governorship as the probable outcome but not a lock.
- $2.5M in 24h volume is 29% of all-time, significant but below Florida's session intensity.
- Texas has been reliably Republican at the governor level; pricing below 75% implies the race draws genuine contest odds.
- Resolves on the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election result.
- Buyers back the GOP Texas governorship at 64% 64% · $1M 24h
- Market prices Republicans as clear favorites at 64% to hold the Texas governorship.
- Kalshi logs $1.02M in 24h, 28% of all-time volume in a single session.
- Late-October surge suggests fresh attention ahead of candidate filing or polling drop.
- Resolves on Texas 2026 general election result.
- Republican Texas governor odds hold firm at 68% 68% · $803K 24h
- Kalshi prices the Republican candidate at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming favorite heading into the race.
- 24h volume of $803K is 33% of all-time, marking one of the contract's heaviest single-day trading sessions.
- Fresh attention at these odds may reflect a challenger development or polling update tightening the race.
- Resolves on the certified Texas gubernatorial election result.
- Republicans hold the line on Texas governor at 68% 68% · $715K 24h
- Market prices Republicans as strong favorites at 68%, a comfortable but not locked margin.
- $715K traded in 24h, equal to 31% of all-time volume, marking the heaviest single-day activity on this contract.
- Fresh capital deployment this late in the cycle suggests a catalyst, poll release, candidate news, or money tracking early-vote data.
- Resolves on Texas gubernatorial election outcome; any narrowing below 60% would be a notable shift.
- Democrats winning Texas governor stays under 25% 12% · $37K 24h
- Kalshi prices a Texas Democratic gubernatorial win at 12%, long shot, but not negligible.
- 68% of all-time volume in 24h suggests a specific catalyst refreshed attention on this race.
- Could reflect a candidate filing, polling release, or national environment shift tied to today's news cycle.
- Resolves on the 2026 Texas gubernatorial general election result.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/govpartytx-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/govpartytx-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("govpartytx-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-B8XSR8GJT6",
"slug": "govpartytx-26",
"question": "Texas Governor winner?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-politics",
"2027-election",
"texas-governor",
"state-executive",
"partisan-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 127005,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "US State Governments",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.usa.gov/state-governments",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "US State Governments",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "US State Governments",
"url": "https://www.usa.gov/state-governments",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}