Vermont Governor winner? [ resolves 2026-11-04 (92D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | US State Governments | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Vermont pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "US State Governments" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
US State Governments committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Vermont | kalshi | 2026-11-04 | 0% |
| YES | Will the Republican party win the governorship in Vermont | kalshi | 2026-11-04 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Vermont GOP governorship stays favored through a volume surge 69% · $150K 24h
- Kalshi prices Republicans at 69%, a solid favorite in a state that has elected a GOP governor despite its deep-blue presidential lean.
- 24h volume of $150K is 35% of the contract's entire all-time volume, an outsized one-day share.
- Vermont's incumbent Republican governor dynamic makes this a structurally unusual market; fresh volume may reflect attention from national Senate map traders.
- Resolves on the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.
- Republicans stay favored in the Vermont governor race 67% · $128K 24h
- Kalshi prices Republicans at 67%, a clear but not overwhelming favorite in an atypically competitive Vermont race.
- $128K in 24h equals 32% of all-time volume, marking a notable pre-election attention spike.
- Vermont's governor race drew Republican-leaning odds despite the state's deep-blue presidential lean, volume confirms the anomaly is priced in.
- Resolves on Vermont governor election result.
- Traders back the GOP heavily in Vermont governor race 83% · $59K 24h
- Kalshi prices a Republican Vermont governorship win at 83%, reflecting strong incumbent-party confidence.
- 24h volume of $59K is 34% of all-time, notable for an historically low-liquidity state race.
- Vermont's Republican incumbent has unusual cross-party strength; volume may reflect late confirmatory polling.
- Resolves on the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election result.
- Vermont governorship at 83% GOP as buying picks up sharply 83% · $59K 24h
- Kalshi prices the Republican candidate at 83% to win Vermont's governorship, a strong but not certain favorite.
- $59K traded in 24h, equal to 34% of all-time volume on this contract, a concentrated burst of activity.
- Vermont's GOP governor historically overperforms the national party; fresh volume may reflect a new poll or endorsement.
- Contract resolves on the November 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.
- Vermont GOP governorship holds strong at 82% 82% · $45K 24h
- Kalshi prices Republican win at 82%, reflecting a near-consensus lean in a state where the incumbent GOP governor has cross-party appeal.
- 24h volume of $45K is 49% of all-time contract volume, a remarkable single-day concentration of capital.
- Vermont's GOP governor has historically outperformed the party label; fresh volume confirms, rather than challenges, that read.
- Resolution tied to 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election result.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/govpartyvt-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/govpartyvt-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("govpartyvt-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-ZSNM57MQS0",
"slug": "govpartyvt-26",
"question": "Vermont Governor winner?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-politics",
"governor-election",
"vermont",
"2026-election",
"state-level"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 30042,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "US State Governments",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.usa.gov/state-governments",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "US State Governments",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "US State Governments",
"url": "https://www.usa.gov/state-governments",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}