Will GPT-5.6 be released in 2026? (multi-deadline series) [ resolves 2026-05 – 2026-07 ]
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, | 2026-05-16 | 0.1% | — | $13K | C | 0xb908c2…251d | ||
| May 22, | 2026-05-25 | 0.1% | — | $25K | C | 0xbf262c…8ae1 | ||
| May 31, | 2026-06-01 | 0.8% | — | $86K | C | 0xe1a9dc…18c2 | ||
| June 5, | 2026-06-06 | 0.1% | — | $81K | C | 0x45eee5…d604 | ||
| June 8, | 2026-06-09 | 0.8% | — | $143K | C | 0x2dfe12…8c60 | ||
| June 15, | 2026-06-15 | 0.0% | $14K | $233K | C | 0x1ff94c…6277 | ||
| June 23, | 2026-06-23 | 0.0% | $706 | $3.3K | C | 0xb8bdd6…210e | ||
| June 30, | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | $3.8K | $114K | C | 0xe69b38…7224 | ||
| July 31, | 2026-07-31 | 96.7% | $2.3K | $192K | C | 0xadc76e…52e4 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official information from OpenAI from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| NO | GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-23 | 0% |
| NO | GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-15 | 0% |
| closed | GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-09 | — |
| closed | GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-06 | — |
| closed | GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-01 | — |
| closed | GPT-5.6 released by May 22, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-05-25 | — |
| closed | GPT-5.6 released by May 15, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-05-16 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (8 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/gpt-5pt6-released-by/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/gpt-5pt6-released-by |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("gpt-5pt6-released-by") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-8SRXQ1F784",
"slug": "gpt-5pt6-released-by",
"question": "Will GPT-5.6 be released in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ai",
"openai",
"tech",
"large-language-models",
"product-release"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 889081,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 60,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from OpenAI",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}