Will the Labour candidate receive the most first preference votes in the Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? [ resolves 2026-07-30 (7D) ]
polymarket: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 36 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bev Craig | 2026-07-30 | 94.0% | $18 | $22K | B | 0xbd2f1d…c0fb | ||
| Dan Barker | 2026-07-30 | 1.2% | $84 | $18K | B | 0x904f3a…fc0e | ||
| Sian Astley | 2026-07-30 | 1.2% | — | $5.5K | B | 0x5a6c2d…ac16 | ||
| Geraldine Coggins | 2026-07-30 | 1.0% | — | $2.8K | B | 0xbac2ce…03b3 | ||
| Kate Green | 2026-07-30 | 0.6% | — | $1.5K | B | 0xa67cc9…e005 | ||
| Jake Austin | 2026-07-30 | 0.5% | — | $1.1K | B | 0xd46dcb…ea00 | ||
| Laura Evans | 2026-07-30 | 0.1% | — | $922 | B | 0x13ab42…19e3 | ||
| Nick Buckley | 2026-07-30 | 0.1% | — | $1.1K | B | 0x5afbda…0b41 | ||
| Hannah Spencer | 2026-07-30 | 0.1% | — | $2.2K | B | 0xdbb122…660f | ||
| Paul Dennett | 2026-07-30 | 0.1% | — | $1.1K | B | 0x7b656c…bc50 | ||
| Arooj Shah | 2026-07-30 | 0.1% | — | $1.7K | B | 0xada7ba…b436 | ||
| Marlon Scott West | 2026-07-30 | 0.1% | — | $1.0K | B | 0x443dba…866f | ||
| Richard Kilpatrick | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x937838…159d | ||
| Person E | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xb38a6d…3cf3 | ||
| Person F | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x83ed30…2818 | ||
| Person G | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x53e938…cc60 | ||
| Person H | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x561a02…adba | ||
| Person I | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xa7ad92…0fc2 | ||
| Person J | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xb9f527…15f2 | ||
| Person K | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x4fb23b…b7dd | ||
| Person L | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x354f66…197f | ||
| Person M | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xc845e7…ecc2 | ||
| Person N | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x0188a5…c25d | ||
| Person O | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x0124e0…f86a | ||
| Person P | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x8ada25…c62f | ||
| Person Q | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe90748…209a | ||
| Person R | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x1a47a5…5f0c | ||
| Person S | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x7e0796…8b98 | ||
| Person T | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x76c8d1…b8ed | ||
| Person U | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x40fbd8…4d58 | ||
| Person V | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x84207e…e85c | ||
| Person W | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xa6f39d…7ee6 | ||
| Person X | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x04e1c5…4e28 | ||
| Person Y | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x531745…c3d2 | ||
| Person Z | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe0fb92…7560 | ||
| Someone else | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x4d48fa…d6c4 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election.
If two candidates tie for receiving the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election, this market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the specified election.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · single authority
- gmelects.org.uk source of record venue-listed
- Greater Manchester Combined Authority from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/greater-manchester-mayoral-election-most-1st-preference-votes-20260625163310509/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/greater-manchester-mayoral-election-most-1st-preference-votes-20260625163310509 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("greater-manchester-mayoral-election-most-1st-preference-votes-20260625163310509") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-1ZNZM37HZ5",
"slug": "greater-manchester-mayoral-election-most-1st-preference-votes-20260625163310509",
"question": "Will the Labour candidate receive the most first preference votes in the Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"uk-local-elections",
"greater-manchester",
"2026",
"mayoral-race"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 36,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 59670,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 71,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.gmelects.org.uk/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "gmelects.org.uk",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "gmelects.org.uk",
"url": "https://www.gmelects.org.uk/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Greater Manchester Combined Authority",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}