Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa no longer lead Bahrain in 2026? (multi-deadline series) [ resolves 2026-06 – 2026-12 ]
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe.
An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Bahrain regime flows defend stability through year-end 5% · $35K 24h
- 5% price reflects near-consensus view that the Bahraini leadership transition is not imminent.
- 24h volume $34.8K is 36% of all-time, a notable single-day share for a low-liquidity contract.
- Elevated volume on a 5% contract suggests a specific news trigger prompted a flurry of 'no' buying.
- Resolves December 31, 2026.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/hamad-bin-isa-al-khalifa-out-as-bahrain-king/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/hamad-bin-isa-al-khalifa-out-as-bahrain-king |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("hamad-bin-isa-al-khalifa-out-as-bahrain-king") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-VFHHKCVH97",
"slug": "hamad-bin-isa-al-khalifa-out-as-bahrain-king",
"question": "Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa no longer lead Bahrain in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"bahrain",
"middle-east",
"leadership-change",
"2026",
"gulf-states"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 174635,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 10,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"discretionary_trigger_no_source",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}