IA-03 House winner? [ resolves 2027-01-04 (153D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Library of Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the House member sworn in for IA-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of Democratic, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Library of Congress" sources (1) · single authority
Library of Congress committed source
recent wire items
- Fresh volume returns to Democrats in IA-3 at 76% 76% · $11K 24h
- Kalshi prices Democrats at 76% in IA-3, a solid but not overwhelming favorite in a historically competitive Iowa district.
- 24h volume of $11K is 38% of all-time handle, the second-highest all-time share in this batch.
- IA-3 has flipped parties multiple cycles; 76% pricing with a fresh volume burst suggests new polling or opponent news is being priced.
- Resolves on the November 2026 IA-3 House general election result.
- Trading picks up on Democrats winning IA-3 at 76% 76% · $18K 24h
- At 76%, Kalshi prices a Democratic win in Iowa's 3rd district as the clear favored outcome.
- 24h volume of $18K represents 62% of all-time handle, the contract's activity is overwhelmingly concentrated in this single session.
- A 62% lifetime-volume single-day surge on a district race signals either a major catalyst, redistricting news, candidate development, or polling, or a market just gaining traction.
- Contract resolves on the certified November 2026 House election result for IA-3.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/houseia3-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/houseia3-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("houseia3-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-2VB36981K2",
"slug": "houseia3-26",
"question": "IA-03 House winner?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"iowa-house-race",
"us-midterm-2026",
"congressional-election",
"house-district-3",
"2026-election"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 8029,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Library of Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}