Will a new representative be elected in Maine's 2nd congressional district? [ resolves 2027-01-04 (153D) ]
kalshi: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Library of Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the House member sworn in for ME-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of Democratic, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Library of Congress" sources (1) · single authority
Library of Congress committed source
recent wire items
- ME-2 GOP odds hold near 67% through fresh volume 67% · $18K 24h
- Kalshi marks GOP at 67% in ME-2, a district that split a presidential ticket as recently as 2020.
- 37% of all-time volume arrived in 24h, a meaningful but not exhaustive surge, leaving room for further positioning.
- ME-2 uses ranked-choice voting, adding resolution complexity that can draw speculative attention near campaign milestones.
- Contract resolves on the certified ME-2 House election outcome.
- Republican ME-2 House odds hold at 67% through renewed trading 67% · $18K 24h
- Kalshi prices the Republican at 67% in ME-2, the highest win probability in this batch of House races.
- 24h volume is 37% of all-time, a moderate but notable uptick given the district's competitive history.
- ME-2 is a perennial swing seat; renewed volume at 67% suggests traders are backing away from a competitive baseline toward a Republican lean.
- Resolves on the certified winner of the Maine 2nd Congressional District race.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/houseme2-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/houseme2-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("houseme2-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-JWBGQF2D62",
"slug": "houseme2-26",
"question": "Will a new representative be elected in Maine's 2nd congressional district?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"maine-elections",
"house-races-2026",
"us-politics",
"electoral-outcomes",
"congressional-elections"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 14104,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 56,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Library of Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}