MT-01 House winner? [ resolves 2027-01-04 (153D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Library of Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the House member sworn in for MT-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Library of Congress" sources (1) · single authority
Library of Congress committed source
recent wire items
- Buyers back GOP holding MT-1 as volume hits 41% of all-time 70% · $37K 24h
- At 70%, Kalshi prices the Republican candidate as a clear favorite in Montana's 1st district.
- 41% of all-time volume landed in 24 hours, the steepest one-day concentration this contract has seen.
- Montana's at-large competitive history draws capital when Senate and House races move together in polling.
- Resolves on 2026 general election certification.
- Democrats win MT-1 stays a long shot at 29% 29% · $19K 24h
- At 29%, Kalshi prices a Democratic upset in MT-1 as a meaningful but unlikely outcome.
- 60% of all-time volume arrived in 24 hours, the highest all-time share concentration across today's batch.
- Paired with Spike 3's 70% GOP read, capital is actively pricing both sides of MT-1 in the same session.
- Resolves on 2026 general election result.
- Republican stays favored in MT-1 as heavy trading tests 69% 69% · $37K 24h
- Kalshi prices a Republican win in MT-1 at 69%, a solid but contested favorite, leaving Democrats a real path.
- $36.8K in 24h is 41% of all-time volume on this contract, the market is repricing with urgency.
- MT-1 is a bellwether swing seat; volume at this scale suggests polling, fundraising data, or candidate news is moving through the market.
- Resolves on 2026 midterm results for MT-1.
- Democratic odds in MT-1 stay under 25% despite fresh volume 30% · $19K 24h
- Kalshi prices a Democratic win in MT-1 at 30%, an underdog but not a long shot, with real implied probability.
- $19.2K in 24h equals a striking 60% of all-time contract volume, the majority of all trading ever done here printed today.
- The companion Republican contract (69%) and this 30% price are arithmetically consistent; volume across both legs signals active two-sided repositioning.
- Resolves on 2026 MT-1 midterm outcome.
- Republicans back in MT-1 at 68% as volume floods in 68% · $35K 24h
- Kalshi prices Republicans at 68% to win Montana's 1st Congressional District.
- $35K in 24h represents 82% of all-time contract volume, nearly the entire history traded today.
- MT-1 has drawn attention as a potential Democratic pickup opportunity in a competitive House map.
- Resolves on November 2026 election night.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/housemt1-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/housemt1-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("housemt1-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-QWGZDJ1DQ6",
"slug": "housemt1-26",
"question": "MT-01 House winner?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-house-election",
"montana-politics",
"2026-midterm",
"congressional-race",
"electoral-prediction"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 9317,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 86,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Library of Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}