Will the Republican candidate win the TX-34 House seat in the next election? [ resolves 2026-11 – 2027-01 ]
Will Democratic win the House race for TX-34?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Library of Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the House member sworn in for TX-34 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Library of Congress" sources (1) · single authority
Library of Congress committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Democratic win the House race for TX-34? | kalshi | 2026-11-04 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Republican candidate in TX-34 stays heavily favored Kalshi 89%
- Kalshi places 89% on the Republican candidate winning the TX-34 House seat, resolving via the Library of Congress; trading volume surged 6,564% day over day.
- The sharp volume spike signals fresh attention on this seat as midterm campaigns enter their final days and early voting accelerates.
- TX-34 has historically been competitive; the 89% pricing with a volume surge suggests the market is moving to price the Republican as a strong but not certain favorite.
- The Kalshi contract on Republicans holding more governorships than Democrats after the midterms (CM-EVT-4DFCBXLZN6) sits at 74%, framing a broadly favorable but not dominant Republican map.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/housetx34-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/housetx34-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("housetx34-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-F19JK9H606",
"slug": "housetx34-26",
"question": "Will the Republican candidate win the TX-34 House seat in the next election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"tx-34",
"house-election",
"2026-midterm",
"us-politics",
"congressional-race"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 10997,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Library of Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}