Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by 2026? [ resolves 2026-07 – 2026-08 ]
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 13, 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 39 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 24, | 2026-07-25 | 99.9% | — | $9.6K | C | 0x30f5b1…b94e | ||
| July 25, | 2026-07-29 | 0.3% | — | $1.9K | C | 0x68da16…22c5 | ||
| July 26, | 2026-07-30 | 1.0% | — | $9.5K | C | 0xf3e51b…013d | ||
| August 1, | 2026-08-01 | 15.4% | $245 | $2.6K | C | 0x32b84d…30d8 | ||
| August 2, | 2026-08-02 | 1.8% | $245 | $2.7K | C | 0x899a56…4e48 | ||
| August 3, | 2026-08-03 | 0.1% | $462 | $3.8K | C | 0xed7a05…c8f8 | ||
| July 27, | 2026-08-04 | 0.9% | — | $1.4K | C | 0x8fe419…bf15 | ||
| July 29, | 2026-08-04 | 1.0% | $150 | $1.9K | C | 0x58c126…48f8 | ||
| July 30, | 2026-08-04 | 0.1% | $95 | $2.7K | C | 0x5c56b6…9f71 | ||
| July 31, | 2026-08-04 | 0.2% | $230 | $2.4K | C | 0x9d581b…2642 | ||
| July 28, | 2026-08-04 | 20.0% | $2.6K | $6.9K | C | 0x9a1ccb…770d | ||
| August 4, | 2026-08-04 | 77.0% | $154 | $753 | C | 0x8519f6…153a | ||
| August 5, | 2026-08-05 | 7.7% | $260 | $942 | C | 0x4cf874…c365 | ||
| August 6, | 2026-08-06 | 8.0% | $55 | $1.1K | C | 0xcaed82…1abd | ||
| August 7, | 2026-08-07 | 12.0% | $38 | $726 | C | 0xf3aa61…a565 | ||
| August 8, | 2026-08-08 | 10.0% | $20 | $815 | C | 0xe288d6…f9e0 | ||
| August 9, | 2026-08-09 | 6.6% | $62 | $545 | C | 0xf54e2f…3030 | ||
| August 10, | 2026-08-10 | 4.2% | $58 | $568 | C | 0x58ce8a…09f6 | ||
| August 11, | 2026-08-11 | 4.1% | $54 | $2.6K | C | 0xbbd723…fb2e | ||
| August 12, | 2026-08-12 | 5.0% | — | $901 | C | 0x4fb6ce…dea5 | ||
| August 13, | 2026-08-13 | 76.0% | — | $331 | C | 0x3cb3b3…4098 | ||
| August 14, | 2026-08-14 | 11.0% | $286 | $2.4K | C | 0xd69f7f…88d7 | ||
| August 15, | 2026-08-15 | 5.0% | — | $1.7K | C | 0xd0bbc8…c856 | ||
| August 16, | 2026-08-16 | 10.0% | $30 | $1.8K | C | 0x98bf99…464b | ||
| August 17, | 2026-08-17 | 8.0% | $40 | $1.5K | C | 0x905107…d9c8 | ||
| August 18, | 2026-08-18 | 11.0% | $10 | $416 | C | 0x0bf88a…b778 | ||
| August 19, | 2026-08-19 | 6.0% | $14 | $1.5K | C | 0x745be8…46c1 | ||
| August 20, | 2026-08-20 | 7.0% | $2 | $2.5K | C | 0x5580ed…7284 | ||
| August 21, | 2026-08-21 | 10.0% | — | $1.5K | C | 0xf50b4c…661a | ||
| August 22, | 2026-08-22 | 6.0% | — | $64 | C | 0x3e1f7e…01c5 | ||
| August 23, | 2026-08-23 | 10.0% | — | $771 | C | 0xd1b933…97f5 | ||
| August 24, | 2026-08-24 | 8.0% | $30 | $600 | C | 0x377038…1163 | ||
| August 25, | 2026-08-25 | 7.0% | — | $2.0K | C | 0x8b31d4…69f8 | ||
| August 26, | 2026-08-26 | 8.0% | — | $350 | C | 0x4d5ba7…1399 | ||
| August 27, | 2026-08-27 | 10.0% | — | $1.4K | C | 0x361e9e…d473 | ||
| August 28, | 2026-08-28 | 8.0% | $19 | $795 | C | 0x9e7771…2e3c | ||
| August 29, | 2026-08-29 | 12.5% | — | $1.2K | C | 0xaff0ae…d467 | ||
| August 30, | 2026-08-30 | 8.0% | — | $1.6K | C | 0x5d032b…029d | ||
| August 31, | 2026-08-31 | 7.0% | $15 | $3.0K | C | 0x123f56…ee40 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/houthis-successfully-target-shipping-onptptpt-20260722225036915/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/houthis-successfully-target-shipping-onptptpt-20260722225036915 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("houthis-successfully-target-shipping-onptptpt-20260722225036915") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-F3WH36MG99",
"slug": "houthis-successfully-target-shipping-onptptpt-20260722225036915",
"question": "Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"shipping-security",
"houthis",
"red-sea",
"2026",
"maritime-conflict"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 39,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 79795,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 34,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}