What is the maximum 10-year Treasury yield before 2027? [ resolves 2026-01 – 2027-01 ]
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 4.3% | 2026-01-21 | 98.9% | — | $6.0K | A | 0xd3999a…a1fa | ||
| ≤ 4.4% | 2026-03-28 | 99.9% | — | $21K | A | 0x2f9735…90b7 | ||
| ≤ 4.5% | 2026-05-15 | 99.8% | — | $37K | A | 0x443e8c…57e9 | ||
| ≤ 4.6% | 2026-05-18 | 99.8% | — | $42K | A | 0x9d9899…e6b4 | ||
| ≤ 4.8% | 2026-12-31 | 60.0% | $442 | $58K | A | 0x06666e…b1a5 | ||
| ≤ 5% | 2026-12-31 | 19.0% | $397 | $79K | A | 0x0e159c…53e0 | ||
| ≤ 5.5% | 2026-12-31 | 26.3% | — | $4.5K | A | 0x1f10b1…d558 | ||
| ≤ 5.7% | 2026-12-31 | 3.6% | $23 | $4.0K | A | 0x48480f…74e7 | ||
| ≤ 6% | 2026-12-31 | 0.7% | — | $2.6K | A | 0xb969b9…4e18 | ||
| ≤ 5.2% | 2027-01-01 | 100.0% | $290 | $24K | A | 0x29ab85…fed1 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025 sources (3) · single authority
home.treasury.gov venue-listed Department of the treasury from rules text Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027? | polymarket | 2026-09-28 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Traders back 10-year yield hitting 5.5% before 2027 at 30% 30% · $36K 24h
- 30% odds on a 5.5% 10-year yield before year-end reflect meaningful but minority-view tail risk.
- Polymarket logs $36K in 24h, 38% of all-time contract volume, a sharp single-session concentration.
- Fresh volume alongside active Fed hike contracts (Spikes 0 and 3) shows rates anxiety spreading across tenors.
- Resolves if the 10-year Treasury yield touches 5.5% before January 1, 2027.
- Traders back a 10-year at 5.5% staying a long shot before 2027 26% · $37K 24h
- Polymarket prices the 10-year Treasury hitting 5.5% before 2027 at 26%, firmly in tail-risk territory.
- $37.2K in 24h represents 40% of all-time volume, the largest single-day share in this contract's life.
- A spike to 40% of lifetime volume on a rates-threshold contract points to fresh macro anxiety around the Fed hike narrative.
- Resolves if the 10-year yield closes at or above 5.5% at any point before January 1, 2027.
- 10-year yield hitting 5.2% before 2027 stays a long shot 28% · $15K 24h
- Polymarket holds the 5.2% threshold at 28%, traders assign roughly one-in-four odds to a significant rates spike before year-end.
- 30% of all-time volume traded in 24h, suggesting a macro catalyst, CPI print, Fed communication, or Treasury supply news, refreshed interest.
- At 28%, the market is pricing this as a tail risk, not a base case, but the volume shows it is not being ignored.
- Contract resolves if the 10-year yield closes at or above 5.2% at any point before January 1, 2027.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-4F238D6VR7",
"slug": "how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-before-2027",
"question": "What is the maximum 10-year Treasury yield before 2027?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"economy",
"fed-rates",
"finance",
"treasury-yields",
"us-bond-markets"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 278755,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Department of the Treasury",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "home.treasury.gov",
"url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Department of the treasury",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}