CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~2,450 EVENTS / ~20,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Polymarket mindshare, June 30, 2026 [ resolved 2026-06-30 ]

Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75% by June 30?

polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 5 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
≥ 70% 2026-04-07 99.9%
$18K
C 0xac11a6…8b6d
≥ 75% 2026-04-07 99.8%
$19K
C 0xe19c7f…3652
≥ 80% 2026-05-26 99.9%
$127K
C 0xb7a1b2…7411
≥ 85% 2026-06-30 0.0%
$54 $45K
C 0x1cfa01…be0d
≥ 90% 2026-06-30 0.0%
$1.5K $40K
C 0xcff7f2…6217
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
polymarket Whitelisted Proposers not provided link Optimistic Oracle (UMA) Other
verbatim rules
polymarket 5 markets · share this text
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Polymarket has at least the specified daily mindshare, as shown on the Kaito Information Markets Arena page (https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets) at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only finalized daily results from the Polymarket mindshare percentage shown on the Kaito Info Markets page at https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets, specifically the daily values for Polymarket under 'Historical Data', will be used to resolve this market. Values will be considered final once the value for the subsequent day has been released. The resolution source for this market is the Kaito Info Markets page found at https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the Kaito Info Markets page comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on the latest available data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Kaito Info Markets page (https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets), which reports the platform’s mindshare as a percentage to two decimal places (e.g., 66.56%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
platform source field polymarket.descriptionhttps://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets
sources (3) · single authority
  • kaito.ai venue-listed
  • Kaito Information Markets Arena page from rules text · editorial
  • Kaito Info Markets page from rules text · editorial
resolution history
outcome market venue resolved final price
NO Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? polymarket 2026-06-30 0%
NO Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? polymarket 2026-06-30 0%
closed Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30? polymarket 2026-05-26
closed Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75% by June 30? polymarket 2026-04-07
closed Will Polymarket mindshare hit 70% by June 30? polymarket 2026-04-07
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (5 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/how-high-will-polymarkets-mindshare-go-by-june-30/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/how-high-will-polymarkets-mindshare-go-by-june-30
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("how-high-will-polymarkets-mindshare-go-by-june-30")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-FW1QYF7GN6",
  "slug": "how-high-will-polymarkets-mindshare-go-by-june-30",
  "question": "Polymarket mindshare, June 30, 2026",
  "category": "companies",
  "tags": [
    "companies",
    "polymarket",
    "mindshare-metric",
    "2026",
    "tech",
    "business"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 5,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 248801,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 47,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "commitment_committed_secondhand"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": "https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "Kaito Information Markets Arena page (https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets)",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "kaito.ai",
      "url": "https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Kaito Information Markets Arena page",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "Kaito Info Markets page",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →