10-year US Treasury yield minimum, December 31, 2026 [ resolves 2026-02 – 2026-12 ]
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 4% | 2026-02-28 | 99.9% | — | $32K | A | 0x665798…f246 | ||
| ≤ 1% | 2026-12-31 | 3.8% | — | $40K | A | 0x0828a0…6c15 | ||
| ≤ 2% | 2026-12-31 | 15.0% | — | $373 | A | 0x24f7bf…6526 | ||
| ≤ 3% | 2026-12-31 | 18.0% | — | $724 | A | 0x31c7f0…7f02 | ||
| ≤ 3.5% | 2026-12-31 | 26.0% | — | $32K | A | 0x01cd5a…7d19 | ||
| ≤ 3.6% | 2026-12-31 | 23.0% | — | $4.9K | A | 0x7e0cee…cb3a | ||
| ≤ 3.7% | 2026-12-31 | 27.0% | — | $26K | A | 0x6a2359…a45f | ||
| ≤ 3.8% | 2026-12-31 | 45.0% | $7 | $40K | A | 0x87de09…1eab | ||
| ≤ 3.9% | 2026-12-31 | 43.6% | — | $41K | A | 0x691fa7…211e |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025 sources (3) · single authority
- home.treasury.gov venue-listed
- Department of the treasury from rules text · editorial
- Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| closed | Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.0% before 2027? | polymarket | 2026-02-28 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-BD6QB5GC44",
"slug": "how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-before-2027",
"question": "10-year US Treasury yield minimum, December 31, 2026",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"treasury-yields",
"economic-indicators",
"2026",
"fed-policy",
"fixed-income"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 216394,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 91,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Department of the Treasury",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "home.treasury.gov",
"url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Department of the treasury",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}