Will the 10-year Treasury yield reach below 2.0% before 2027? [ resolves 2026-02 – 2026-12 ]
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 4% | 2026-02-28 | 99.9% | — | $32K | A | 0x665798…f246 | ||
| ≤ 1% | 2026-12-31 | 1.7% | — | $41K | A | 0x0828a0…6c15 | ||
| ≤ 2% | 2026-12-31 | 3.0% | — | $428 | A | 0x24f7bf…6526 | ||
| ≤ 3% | 2026-12-31 | 6.0% | — | $796 | A | 0x31c7f0…7f02 | ||
| ≤ 3.5% | 2026-12-31 | 9.0% | — | $33K | A | 0x01cd5a…7d19 | ||
| ≤ 3.6% | 2026-12-31 | 4.0% | $12 | $5.5K | A | 0x7e0cee…cb3a | ||
| ≤ 3.7% | 2026-12-31 | 6.0% | — | $27K | A | 0x6a2359…a45f | ||
| ≤ 3.8% | 2026-12-31 | 13.0% | $1 | $41K | A | 0x87de09…1eab | ||
| ≤ 3.9% | 2026-12-31 | 7.5% | — | $43K | A | 0x691fa7…211e |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025 sources (3) · single authority
home.treasury.gov venue-listed Department of the treasury from rules text Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates from rules text
recent wire items
- 10-year yield staying well above 1 percent is near certain Polymarket ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices only 2% on the 10-year Treasury yield dipping below 1.00% before 2027, with all strikes from 1.0% to 3.9% in the 1-4% range.
- With the 10-year at ~5.1% (Story 3), the near-zero probability of a sub-1% yield is fully consistent with current market conditions; volume rose 321x day-over-day.
- The volume surge reflects fresh engagement with rate-floor contracts as the 5% yield level triggered Bitcoin long liquidations of $438-$454 million.
- The NASDAQ-100 positive-in-2026 Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-DTKS54W7T6) sits at 89%, suggesting equity markets have not fully capitulated despite the yield shock.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-BD6QB5GC44",
"slug": "how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-before-2027",
"question": "Will the 10-year Treasury yield reach below 2.0% before 2027?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"treasury-yields",
"economic-indicators",
"2026",
"fed-policy",
"fixed-income"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 222581,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 91,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Department of the Treasury",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "home.treasury.gov",
"url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Department of the treasury",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}