Trump approval rating, 2026 [ resolves 2026-03 – 2026-12 ]
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?
polymarket: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 5 markets
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin sources (3) · stated precedence rule
- natesilver.net venue-listed
- Silver Bulletin source of record from rules text · editorial
- RealClearPolitics from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| closed | Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-03-28 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/how-low-will-trumps-approval-rating-go-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/how-low-will-trumps-approval-rating-go-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("how-low-will-trumps-approval-rating-go-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-VNTLCWF6Y5",
"slug": "how-low-will-trumps-approval-rating-go-in-2026",
"question": "Trump approval rating, 2026",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump",
"approval-ratings",
"us-politics",
"2026",
"polling"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 83016,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Silver Bulletin",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "natesilver.net",
"url": "https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Silver Bulletin",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "RealClearPolitics",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}