How many Democratic House members will not be running in 2026? [ resolves 2026-08-31 (56D) ]
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 20 | 2026-08-31 | 3.8% | — | $17K | C | 0x45c8cc…c43e | ||
| Between 20 and 23 inclusive | 2026-08-31 | 3.1% | — | $5.5K | C | 0x4d79d3…e5b9 | ||
| Between 24 and 27 inclusive | 2026-08-31 | 9.0% | — | $4.3K | C | 0xb24ae6…67bf | ||
| Between 28 and 31 inclusive | 2026-08-31 | 10.0% | — | $1.2K | C | 0x8b02a7…f988 | ||
| Between 32 and 35 inclusive | 2026-08-31 | 4.3% | — | $3.8K | C | 0x17087f…88ed | ||
| Between 36 and 39 inclusive | 2026-08-31 | 2.7% | — | $806 | C | 0x3bd411…8b7c | ||
| 40 or more | 2026-08-31 | 6.1% | — | $938 | C | 0x2b44c7…b5a3 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/how-many-democratic-house-members-not-running-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/how-many-democratic-house-members-not-running-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("how-many-democratic-house-members-not-running-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-BQZQ7HKT75",
"slug": "how-many-democratic-house-members-not-running-in-2026",
"question": "How many Democratic House members will not be running in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"congress",
"elections",
"2026-midterms",
"house-retirements",
"democratic-party"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 33692,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 53,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}