Will there be at least one dissent at the July Federal Reserve meeting? [ resolves 2026-07-29 (6D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No one | 2026-07-29 | 24.0% | $2.5K | $35K | A | 0x50ba17…7967 | ||
| One person | 2026-07-29 | 24.0% | $38 | $1.6K | A | 0x8b263b…80fb | ||
| Two people | 2026-07-29 | 23.7% | $347 | $3.8K | A | 0xecd698…c312 | ||
| Three people | 2026-07-29 | 20.0% | $75 | $1.0K | A | 0xdd64b7…2a47 | ||
| Four or more people | 2026-07-29 | 5.4% | $15 | $3.1K | A | 0xc96479…d3f3 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for July 28-29, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on July 29, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the July Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm sources (2) · stated precedence rule
- federalreserve.gov source of record venue-listed
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/how-many-dissent-at-the-july-fed-meeting-20260616001900143/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/how-many-dissent-at-the-july-fed-meeting-20260616001900143 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("how-many-dissent-at-the-july-fed-meeting-20260616001900143") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-8SDTDSWSB6",
"slug": "how-many-dissent-at-the-july-fed-meeting-20260616001900143",
"question": "Will there be at least one dissent at the July Federal Reserve meeting?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed",
"fed-rates",
"monetary-policy",
"fomc-dissent",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 44205,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "federalreserve.gov",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "federalreserve.gov",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}