Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates at least once in 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (161D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Fed rate hikes | 2026-12-31 | 27.0% | $2.0K | $24K | A | 0x37f3cb…b857 | ||
| 1 Fed rate hike | 2026-12-31 | 28.0% | $555 | $9.8K | A | 0x9db890…a693 | ||
| 2 Fed rate hikes | 2026-12-31 | 38.0% | $1.6K | $9.6K | A | 0xff8ae2…21f4 | ||
| 3 Fed rate hikes | 2026-12-31 | 9.0% | $1.9K | $4.6K | A | 0x3a2bbd…b37f | ||
| 4 Fed rate hikes | 2026-12-31 | 1.8% | $498 | $3.0K | A | 0x2efed6…b034 | ||
| 5 or more Fed rate hikes | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $73 | $2.6K | A | 0x5135a2…b43f |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm sources (4) · single authority
- federalreserve.gov source of record venue-listed
- federalreserve.gov source of record venue-listed
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm from rules text · editorial
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/how-many-fed-rate-hikes-in-2026-20260623190717369/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/how-many-fed-rate-hikes-in-2026-20260623190717369 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("how-many-fed-rate-hikes-in-2026-20260623190717369") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-14GPBMBQY0",
"slug": "how-many-fed-rate-hikes-in-2026-20260623190717369",
"question": "Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates at least once in 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed",
"fomc",
"interest-rates",
"us-monetary-policy",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 53854,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "federalreserve.gov",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "federalreserve.gov",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "federalreserve.gov",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}