Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in July? [ resolves 2026-08-07 (3D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lose | 2026-08-07 | 6.2% | $175 | $4.3K | A | 0xc0a7f6…b2e4 | ||
| Add between 0 and 50k | 2026-08-07 | 15.0% | $234 | $5.1K | A | 0x1599f5…cc6b | ||
| Add between 50k and 100k | 2026-08-07 | 29.0% | $101 | $5.4K | A | 0xb3284f…a012 | ||
| Add between 100k and 150k | 2026-08-07 | 36.0% | $536 | $5.4K | A | 0xa8c9a3…858d | ||
| Add between 150k and 200k | 2026-08-07 | 13.9% | — | $2.9K | A | 0x160c9d…a7f4 | ||
| Add at least 200k | 2026-08-07 | 8.0% | — | $497 | A | 0xbfba6f…96c5 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for July 2026, scheduled to be released on August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm sources (2) · single authority
- bls.gov source of record venue-listed
- BLS "Employment Situation Summary" from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/how-many-jobs-added-in-july-20260702221813246/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/how-many-jobs-added-in-july-20260702221813246 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("how-many-jobs-added-in-july-20260702221813246") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-T4MXZ9HS26",
"slug": "how-many-jobs-added-in-july-20260702221813246",
"question": "Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in July?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"economy",
"us-jobs",
"labor-market",
"monthly-employment",
"july-2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 23547,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "bls.gov",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "bls.gov",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "BLS \"Employment Situation Summary\"",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}