How many of these Sanders endorsees will win their August 4 primaries in Michigan and Missouri? [ resolves 2026-08-04 (0D) ]
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 0 Sanders endorsees win August 4 primaries | 2026-08-04 | 0.1% | $35 | $1.1K | C | 0x01f509…f588 | ||
| Will 1 Sanders endorsees win August 4 primaries | 2026-08-04 | 0.1% | $366 | $1.4K | C | 0xf26bcf…b5e2 | ||
| Will 2 Sanders endorsees win August 4 primaries | 2026-08-04 | 1.4% | $588 | $3.4K | C | 0x45ed5f…0b4e | ||
| Will 3 Sanders endorsees win August 4 primaries | 2026-08-04 | 97.6% | $2.7K | $33K | C | 0xaf753c…32ea | ||
| Will 4 Sanders endorsees win August 4 primaries | 2026-08-04 | 6.0% | $1.0K | $6.1K | C | 0x7c32eb…130f |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Bernie Sanders has endorsed Abdul El-Sayed, Cori Bush, William Lawrence, and Donavan McKinney in contested Senate and Congressional primary races that are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of candidates, among those listed below, who win their primaries, inclusive of any runoff elections. For purposes of this market, a candidate will still be considered to have won the primary if no primary election is held and the candidate receives the relevant party nomination.
This market will only consider the four candidates listed below. No subsequent endorsement, unendorsement, or withdrawal from a race will be relevant.
The candidates and races are:
Abdul El-Sayed in the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary; Cori Bush in the MO-01 Democratic House Primary; William Lawrence in the MI-07 Democratic House Primary; and Donavan McKinney in the MI-13 Democratic House Primary.
If, for any listed race, no nominee has been formally determined by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the listed candidate in that race will be deemed not to have won.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of the relevant state election authorities responsible for reporting the results of these primary elections; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- a compilation of the relevant state election authorities responsible for reporting the results of these primary elections from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/how-many-of-these-sanders-endorsees-will-win-their-august-4-primaries-michigan-and-missouri-20260728015313605/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/how-many-of-these-sanders-endorsees-will-win-their-august-4-primaries-michigan-and-missouri-20260728015313605 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("how-many-of-these-sanders-endorsees-will-win-their-august-4-primaries-michigan-and-missouri-20260728015313605") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-DRJPHTKV27",
"slug": "how-many-of-these-sanders-endorsees-will-win-their-august-4-primaries-michigan-and-missouri-20260728015313605",
"question": "How many of these Sanders endorsees will win their August 4 primaries in Michigan and Missouri?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"2026-elections",
"primary-elections",
"sanders-endorsements",
"michigan-missouri"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 44562,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "a compilation of the relevant state election authorities responsible for reporting the results of these primary elections",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}