Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 28 and 31 inclusive? [ resolves 2026-08-31 (89D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by strike
polymarket 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 2026-08-31 | 6.8% | — | $19K | C | 0xe7d699…75a7 | ||
| ≤ 24 | 2026-08-31 | 6.7% | — | $5.1K | C | 0xeafc8d…8afb | ||
| 28 | 2026-08-31 | 10.1% | — | $23K | C | 0xad1f28…7d41 | ||
| 32 | 2026-08-31 | 12.7% | — | $5.0K | C | 0xfacaaf…e3a5 | ||
| 36 | 2026-08-31 | 45.9% | — | $3.1K | C | 0x23e782…c0d0 | ||
| 40 | 2026-08-31 | 9.6% | — | $2.6K | C | 0x2649d4…1986 | ||
| ≥ 44 | 2026-08-31 | 4.2% | — | $3.0K | C | 0x164788…9748 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/how-many-republican-house-members-not-running-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/how-many-republican-house-members-not-running-in-2026.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("how-many-republican-house-members-not-running-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-QWRCCPDWP5",
"slug": "how-many-republican-house-members-not-running-in-2026",
"question": "Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 28 and 31 inclusive?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"congress",
"us-house",
"2026",
"retirements"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 61101,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 52,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}