How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election? [ resolved 2026-09-20 ]
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Between 340 and 354 | 2026-09-20 | 100.0% | — | $47K | C | 0x5ee389…ca68 | ||
| Fewer than 280 | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | $25K | C | 0x430751…4e16 | ||
| Between 280 and 294 | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | $202 | $15K | C | 0x070312…3d7a | ||
| Between 295 and 309 | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | $187 | $11K | C | 0x0a9bb5…2f57 | ||
| Between 310 and 324 | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | $102 | $12K | C | 0x8e41c5…6d4c | ||
| Between 325 and 339 | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | $26K | C | 0xe62ab8…e1b1 | ||
| 355 or more | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | $387 | $37K | C | 0x2421eb…3176 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | polymarket | 2026-09-25 | 100% |
| NO | Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | polymarket | 2026-09-25 | 0% |
| NO | Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 0% |
| NO | Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 0% |
| NO | Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 0% |
| NO | Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 0% |
| NO | Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (7 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- United Russia holding 340-354 Duma seats looks unlikely 30% · $41K 24h
- Polymarket prices United Russia landing in the 340-354 seat band at just 30%, the market leans against this range.
- 24h volume of $41K is 27% of all-time, a meaningful session for an emerging geopolitical contract.
- Low odds suggest traders expect United Russia to either overshoot or undershoot this specific seat bracket.
- Resolves on official Russian State Duma election results.
- United Russia hitting 340-354 seats trades at 32% on fresh volume 32% · $41K 24h
- Polymarket prices this seat-band at 32%, a live but below-even probability for the specific range.
- 27% of all-time volume in 24 hours suggests traders are repositioning ahead of Russian parliamentary election results or forecasts.
- At 32%, the market sees the 340-354 bracket as one of several competitive outcome bins, not the consensus landing zone.
- Resolution tied to official Russian State Duma seat allocation following the next parliamentary election.
- United Russia 325-339 seat band stays in play at 41% 41% · $30K 24h
- 41% price means this specific seat-count band is the single most-likely outcome bracket in the market.
- 28% of all-time volume in 24 hours suggests renewed attention to Duma election positioning or polling.
- The 325-339 range implies a strong United Russia majority but below a constitutional-supermajority threshold.
- Resolves on the official certified seat count from the next Russian State Duma election.
- United Russia 295-309 seat band stays a long shot at 6% 6% · $25K 24h
- 6% price marks the 295-309 seat band as a heavy underdog, the market prices a weaker United Russia result as unlikely.
- 25% of all-time volume in one session, alongside Spike 4, shows capital rotating across seat-count brackets.
- Low price with non-trivial volume suggests traders are selling this band as the higher brackets absorb conviction.
- Resolves on certified seat totals from the next Russian State Duma election.
- United Russia winning 280-294 Duma seats trades near zero 3% · $41K 24h
- Polymarket prices just a 3% chance United Russia lands in the 280-294 seat band, near-zero probability.
- $41K in 24h is 36% of all-time volume, reflecting fresh but modest engagement on a tail scenario.
- The narrow seat range makes this a precision bet; broader United Russia dominance is likely priced elsewhere.
- Resolves upon official Russian State Duma election results.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/how-many-seats-will-united-russia-win-in-the-next-russian-legislative-election/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/how-many-seats-will-united-russia-win-in-the-next-russian-legislative-election |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("how-many-seats-will-united-russia-win-in-the-next-russian-legislative-election") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-MCHQSDBHW5",
"slug": "how-many-seats-will-united-russia-win-in-the-next-russian-legislative-election",
"question": "How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"russia",
"duma-2026",
"seat-count",
"legislative-outcomes"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 172741,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 26,
"rcg_caps": [
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}