How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election? [ resolves 2026-09-20 (59D) ]
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Between 325 and 339 | 2026-09-20 | 27.0% | $60 | $26K | C | 0xe62ab8…e1b1 | ||
| Between 340 and 354 | 2026-09-20 | 22.0% | $490 | $40K | C | 0x5ee389…ca68 | ||
| Between 310 and 324 | 2026-09-20 | 20.1% | $48 | $11K | C | 0x8e41c5…6d4c | ||
| 355 or more | 2026-09-20 | 16.0% | $106 | $34K | C | 0x2421eb…3176 | ||
| Between 295 and 309 | 2026-09-20 | 8.9% | $110 | $10K | C | 0x0a9bb5…2f57 | ||
| Between 280 and 294 | 2026-09-20 | 2.9% | $139 | $14K | C | 0x070312…3d7a | ||
| Fewer than 280 | 2026-09-20 | 1.9% | $251 | $25K | C | 0x430751…4e16 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
- Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/how-many-seats-will-united-russia-win-in-the-next-russian-legislative-election/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/how-many-seats-will-united-russia-win-in-the-next-russian-legislative-election |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("how-many-seats-will-united-russia-win-in-the-next-russian-legislative-election") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-MCHQSDBHW5",
"slug": "how-many-seats-will-united-russia-win-in-the-next-russian-legislative-election",
"question": "How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"russia",
"duma-2026",
"seat-count",
"legislative-outcomes"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 159779,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 26,
"rcg_caps": [
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}