Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q2 2026 [ resolved 2026-06-30 ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| < 300000 | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | $127 | $6.3K | A | 0x7a2b0a…9b4a | ||
| 475000 or more | 2026-06-30 | 100.0% | $162 | $4.7K | A | 0x492643…1b4b | ||
| Between 300000 and 325000 | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | $128 | $4.1K | A | 0x037751…4b60 | ||
| Between 325000 and 350000 | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | $127 | $4.3K | A | 0x87f093…9ad9 | ||
| Between 350000 and 375000 | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | $178 | $11K | A | 0x178788…e94b | ||
| Between 375000 and 400000 | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | $200 | $7.5K | A | 0x13150b…2df4 | ||
| Between 400000 and 425000 | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | $942 | $10K | A | 0xb98ca5…d293 | ||
| Between 425000 and 450000 | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | $187 | $6.0K | A | 0x3be2b0…b0da | ||
| Between 450000 and 475000 | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | $411 | $5.9K | A | 0x2925e3…818c |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | ir.tesla.com | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://ir.tesla.com/press resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Tesla deliver less than 300000 vehicles in Q2 2026 | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| NO | Will Tesla deliver between 300000 and 325000 vehicles in Q2 2026 | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| NO | Will Tesla deliver between 325000 and 350000 vehicles in Q2 2026 | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| NO | Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q2 2026 | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| NO | Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| NO | Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| NO | Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026 | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| NO | Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| YES | Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 100% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (9 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Tesla 400K, 425K delivery band targeted by late Q2 capital 29% · $10K 24h
- Polymarket at 29%, modest plurality implies this band is the modal miss scenario among bearish delivery views.
- $10K in 24h equals 37% of all-time volume; activity concentrated at the wire with hours left in Q2.
- Combined with the ≥475K contract (Spike 2 at 26%), capital is distributing across miss scenarios rather than committing to one.
- Resolves on Q2 delivery report; band specificity makes this a precision trade on production output.
- Capital stacks on Tesla falling short of 475K Q2 deliveries 26% · $24K 24h
- Polymarket at 26%, majority of capital prices a miss against the 475K threshold.
- $24K in 24h is 58% of all-time contract volume, the sharpest single-session commitment yet.
- Q2 ends June 30; delivery data imminent, driving last-window positioning across both sides.
- Sister contract (400K, 425K band at 29%) absorbs overlapping flow, see Spike 5.
- Tesla Q2 delivery miss risk priced at 89% against 475K target 11% · $22K 24h
- 11% probability implies the market expects Tesla to fall short of 475K Q2 deliveries.
- $22K in 24h is 58% of all-time contract volume, significant late-quarter positioning.
- Q2 ends June 30; delivery data release imminent, compressing time value sharply.
- Low price and high volume share suggest 'No' holders are locking in gains ahead of the print.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/how-many-tesla-deliveries-in-q2-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/how-many-tesla-deliveries-in-q2-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("how-many-tesla-deliveries-in-q2-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-TKB6WQH0P3",
"slug": "how-many-tesla-deliveries-in-q2-2026",
"question": "Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q2 2026",
"category": "companies",
"tags": [
"companies",
"tesla",
"vehicle-deliveries",
"q2-2026",
"business",
"automotive"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 60632,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 81,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "ir.tesla.com",
"resolution_source_url": "https://ir.tesla.com/press",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}