Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q2 2026 [ resolves 2026-06-30 (27D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
polymarket 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 35.8% | $411 | $5.9K | A | 0x2925e3…818c | ||
| ≥ 475,000 | 2026-06-30 | 22.7% | $162 | $4.7K | A | 0x492643…1b4b | ||
| Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 19.0% | $187 | $6.0K | A | 0x3be2b0…b0da | ||
| Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q2 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 9.7% | $178 | $11K | A | 0x178788…e94b | ||
| Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 8.0% | $200 | $7.5K | A | 0x13150b…2df4 | ||
| Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 7.9% | $942 | $10K | A | 0xb98ca5…d293 | ||
| Will Tesla deliver between 325000 and 350000 vehicles in Q2 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 2.5% | $127 | $4.3K | A | 0x87f093…9ad9 | ||
| ≤ 300,000 | 2026-06-30 | 2.3% | $127 | $6.3K | A | 0x7a2b0a…9b4a | ||
| Will Tesla deliver between 300000 and 325000 vehicles in Q2 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 0.6% | $128 | $4.1K | A | 0x037751…4b60 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | ir.tesla.com | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://ir.tesla.com/press recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/how-many-tesla-deliveries-in-q2-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/how-many-tesla-deliveries-in-q2-2026.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("how-many-tesla-deliveries-in-q2-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-TKB6WQH0P3",
"slug": "how-many-tesla-deliveries-in-q2-2026",
"question": "Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q2 2026",
"category": "companies",
"tags": [
"companies",
"tesla",
"vehicle-deliveries",
"q2-2026",
"business",
"automotive"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 60632,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "ir.tesla.com",
"resolution_source_url": "https://ir.tesla.com/press",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}