Will there be at least one UK parliamentary by-election in 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or fewer | 2026-12-31 | 16.0% | — | $4.7K | A | 0xee68f3…6290 | ||
| Exactly 6 | 2026-12-31 | 36.0% | — | $9.4K | A | 0x3e2090…9a65 | ||
| Exactly 7 | 2026-12-31 | 44.0% | — | $1.8K | A | 0x3554ee…5f2f | ||
| Exactly 8 | 2026-12-31 | 12.0% | — | $2.3K | A | 0x8fb3f3…4865 | ||
| Exactly 9 | 2026-12-31 | 4.3% | — | $783 | A | 0x436342…30d0 | ||
| At least 10 | 2026-12-31 | 1.8% | — | $1.0K | A | 0xc20acb…109b |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the total number of UK parliamentary by-elections held in 2026.
Qualifying by-elections must be elections to the UK House of Commons for a vacant parliamentary seat, with polling day scheduled and held within the 2026 calendar year.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · stated precedence rule
- parliament.uk venue-listed
- UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/) from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/how-many-uk-parliamentary-by-elections-in-2026-20260708164636512/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/how-many-uk-parliamentary-by-elections-in-2026-20260708164636512 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("how-many-uk-parliamentary-by-elections-in-2026-20260708164636512") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-JTWXKHJ868",
"slug": "how-many-uk-parliamentary-by-elections-in-2026-20260708164636512",
"question": "Will there be at least one UK parliamentary by-election in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"uk-parliament",
"by-elections",
"2026",
"electoral-count"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 19878,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.parliament.uk/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "UK Parliament",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "parliament.uk",
"url": "https://www.parliament.uk/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}