Will the IAEA visit the Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by 2026? [ resolves 2026-08 – 2026-12 ]
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) from rules text a consensus of credible reporting from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- IAEA Iran site visit by year-end stays a long shot at 14% 14% · $42K 24h
- Polymarket prices an IAEA visit to Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz by December 31 at just 14%, reflecting deep skepticism.
- $42K in 24h is 28% of all-time volume, notable fresh flow into a geopolitical tail-risk contract.
- Volume surge likely tied to diplomatic headlines or IAEA board meeting chatter, even as the price stays anchored near lows.
- Hard December 31 resolution makes this a clean binary on near-term Iran nuclear diplomacy.
- IAEA access to Iran nuclear sites stays a long shot at 14% 14% · $84K 24h
- Polymarket prices an IAEA visit to Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz by Dec 31 at just 14%, market reads access as unlikely.
- 57% of all-time volume arrived in the last 24h, the single largest daily session yet on this contract.
- Surge likely tied to fresh diplomatic signals or nuclear-talks noise; attention at this scale typically precedes a catalyst.
- Resolves December 31, 2026 based on confirmed IAEA inspection of named sites.
- IAEA access to Iran sites by Dec 31 stays a long shot 17% · $43K 24h
- Polymarket prices only 17% odds, inspectors are not expected back at Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz this year.
- 24h volume of $43K equals 40% of all-time handle, signaling a sharp burst of fresh attention on this contract.
- Renewed diplomatic signals or back-channel talks likely driving traders to take a position ahead of year-end.
- Resolves YES if IAEA physically visits any named site before December 31, 2026.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/iaea-visits-isfahan-fordow-or-natanz-nuclear-site-by-july-31-20260624040209014/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/iaea-visits-isfahan-fordow-or-natanz-nuclear-site-by-july-31-20260624040209014 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("iaea-visits-isfahan-fordow-or-natanz-nuclear-site-by-july-31-20260624040209014") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-2M6LXFRJ38",
"slug": "iaea-visits-isfahan-fordow-or-natanz-nuclear-site-by-july-31-20260624040209014",
"question": "Will the IAEA visit the Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"iran-nuclear",
"iaea-inspections",
"middle-east",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 285349,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 40,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}