Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026? [ resolves — ]
polymarket: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Republicans | — | 99.7% | — | $12K | B | 0x22e986…97c7 | ||
| The Democrats | — | 4.0% | — | $5.2K | B | 0xbf4144…0280 | ||
| Person B | — | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xca0975…b3df | ||
| Person D | — | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xf4a40d…3f8c | ||
| Person F | — | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x56054b…de6a | ||
| Person H | — | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x62aeb5…2c07 | ||
| Person J | — | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe676e9…1d9d | ||
| Person A | — | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xd598aa…c301 | ||
| Person C | — | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xb2de58…c010 | ||
| Person E | — | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x331356…f23f | ||
| Person G | — | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x649273…94f6 | ||
| Person I | — | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xedaa65…cc03 | ||
| A candidate not listed above | — | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x0c1762…90f7 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (4) · quorum — multiple sources must agree
Associated Press from rules text Fox News from rules text NBC from rules text official certification from rules text
recent wire items
- Traders back Idaho GOP lock on polymarket at near-certainty 97% · $105K 24h
- 97% price on polymarket echoes Kalshi's read, GOP Idaho win treated as a near-certainty across venues.
- $105,363 in 24h volume is 43% of all-time, mirroring the Kalshi spike on the same race today.
- Cross-venue volume surge on the same contract suggests coordinated positioning or an arbitrage desk active on both books.
- Resolves on 2026 Idaho Senate general election.
- Traders back Idaho Senate GOP to win at 90% 90% · $73K 24h
- Polymarket prices Republican win at 90%, consistent with Kalshi's 87% read on the same race.
- $73K in 24h is 37% of all-time volume, cross-venue flow confirms broad renewed interest.
- Parallel spikes on Kalshi and Polymarket for the same contract suggest arbitrage or coordinated hedging activity.
- Resolves on 2026 midterm election night.
- Republicans stay heavy favorites in Idaho Senate 90% · $28K 24h
- Polymarket prices Republicans at 90%, near-certainty for the GOP to hold Idaho's Senate seat in 2026.
- $27.7K traded in 24h, representing 54% of all-time contract volume, majority of lifetime activity in a single session.
- Burst of fresh attention on a deep-red state race suggests either a ballot event or hedging against a long-shot upset scenario.
- Contract resolves on 2026 midterm result; at 90%, market sees minimal path for Democrats.
- Betting backs Republicans deep in Idaho Senate at 90% 90% · $28K 24h
- 90% odds on Polymarket price the Idaho Senate seat as a near-certain Republican hold.
- 24h volume of $28K equals 54% of all-time, more than half the contract's lifetime activity in one day.
- Fresh capital deployment into a lopsided line signals positioning ahead of a filing deadline or poll release.
- Resolves on 2026 Idaho Senate election outcome.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/idaho-senate-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/idaho-senate-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("idaho-senate-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-HW8FT0L534",
"slug": "idaho-senate-election-winner",
"question": "Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"us-senate",
"idaho",
"2026",
"republican-control"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 17465,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Associated Press",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "official certification",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}