Will India's annual inflation rate exceed 6% by end of 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-12 (223D) ]
polymarket: [B] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
polymarket 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 0.75% | 2027-01-12 | 5.0% | — | $836 | B | 0x2cbd29…aa19 | ||
| ≥ 4.5% | 2027-01-12 | 86.0% | — | $11K | B | 0x4c3eb9…932b | ||
| Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.75% and 4.49% | 2027-01-12 | 16.0% | — | $23K | B | 0x99f9b9…0734 | ||
| Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 0.75% and 1.49% | 2027-01-12 | 1.3% | — | $555 | B | 0xa54df1…3883 | ||
| Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.00% and 3.74% | 2027-01-12 | 1.0% | — | $547 | B | 0xebf357…0188 | ||
| Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 1.50% and 2.24% | 2027-01-12 | 0.8% | — | $445 | B | 0x5c4b38…7e01 | ||
| Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.25% and 2.99% | 2027-01-12 | 0.6% | — | $24K | B | 0x8aee74…4738 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/india-annual-inflation-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/india-annual-inflation-2026.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("india-annual-inflation-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-P8455L05H1",
"slug": "india-annual-inflation-2026",
"question": "Will India's annual inflation rate exceed 6% by end of 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"economy",
"inflation",
"india",
"price-stability",
"macroeconomic-data"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 60913,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [
"uncommitted_illustrative"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}