Iowa Governor Election Winner [ resolves — ]
polymarket: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Democrats | — | 99.9% | — | $23K | A | 0xd73a3c…d896 | ||
| The Republicans | — | 36.0% | — | $32K | A | 0x26d2b0…45b0 | ||
| Option A | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x591005…eaeb | ||
| Option B | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xb0bd6c…c769 | ||
| Option C | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x883602…8dc0 | ||
| Option D | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa5ddc1…ccfc | ||
| Option E | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xe9e1b8…7e93 | ||
| Option F | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x98bf47…f973 | ||
| Option G | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x844365…3a5a | ||
| Option H | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xbdb18a…e222 | ||
| Option I | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x023522…cd0c | ||
| Option J | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x29b7a5…6742 | ||
| Other | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x76072f…374e |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (4) · quorum — multiple sources must agree
Associated Press from rules text Fox News from rules text NBC from rules text official certification from rules text
recent wire items
- Iowa governor odds hold strong for Democrats on fresh volume 91% · $38K 24h
- Polymarket prices 91%, heavy Democratic favoritism baked into the Iowa governor contract.
- $38K in 24h is 30% of all-time volume on a $128K contract, a steady mid-cycle liquidity addition.
- Iowa governor race drawing fresh capital as the broader 2026 gubernatorial map comes into focus.
- Resolves on 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election result.
- Iowa governor race bets pile into Democratic side at 91% 91% · $39K 24h
- 91% price marks Democrats as overwhelming favorites in Iowa's 2026 governor race, a striking stance in a traditionally red state.
- 24h volume of $38K is 30% of all-time handle, adding a meaningful fresh layer to an already active market.
- October attention may reflect Republican candidate weakness, scandal, or a strong Democratic recruitment locking in the field.
- Resolves on 2026 election night; a 91% price implies the market sees the GOP path as a tail risk only.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/iowa-governor-winner-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/iowa-governor-winner-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("iowa-governor-winner-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-5Q3L341WH8",
"slug": "iowa-governor-winner-2026",
"question": "Iowa Governor Election Winner",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"iowa",
"governor",
"us-states",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 54904,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 82,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Associated Press",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "official certification",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}