Will Iran agree to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 9.3% | $15K | $1.52M | C | 0xff68b3…58df |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
a consensus of credible reporting from rules text
recent wire items
- Iran ending uranium enrichment by year-end stays at long odds Polymarket 10%
- Polymarket puts 10% on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026.
- The combination of Trump nuclear strike commentary and ongoing diplomacy is consistent with a market that sees a negotiated enrichment halt as unlikely but non-trivial.
- A companion Polymarket contract on Congress approving an Iran deal by 2026 (CM-EVT-PB2TWNBNL3) sits at 7%, and a UN Security Council endorsement contract (CM-EVT-1B57MJ14Q5) is at 10%, the suite is aligned in pricing low odds on any full diplomatic resolution.
- The CM-EVT-38HGT3RJ52 contract on the U.S. obtaining Iranian enriched uranium saw a 7,209x volume surge day over day, the largest in this entire batch, flagging that Trump's nuclear strike remarks are drawing intense market attention to the enrichment question.
- Iran uranium deal by year-end stays a long shot at 13 percent Polymarket 13%
- Polymarket prices Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31 at 13%, firmly in long-shot territory.
- Vance's public pivot to reduced rather than zero enrichment signals some diplomatic softening, but the 13% price shows the market is not treating this as a near-term breakthrough.
- Active US military strikes on Iran reported on October 8 (Story 29) are consistent with, not contradictory to, this low probability, diplomacy and military action are running in parallel.
- Polymarket resolves via UMA oracle; the precise definition of 'agree to end enrichment' will be critical, a reduced-enrichment deal may not satisfy the resolution standard.
- Iran ending uranium enrichment by year-end stays a long shot Polymarket 13%
- Polymarket prices only a 13% chance Iran agrees to end uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026.
- New US demands and Vance's compromise signals suggest diplomacy is alive, but Polymarket's pricing reflects deep skepticism a deal closes this year.
- The US military preparing Iran strike options (Story 10, 12) and deadlocked diplomacy (Story 24) are consistent with the low probability the market assigns to a nuclear agreement.
- Resolves via UMA oracle; the contract requires Iran to formally agree to end enrichment, not merely reduce it.
- Iran agrees to end uranium enrichment by year-end stays a long shot Polymarket 13%
- Polymarket prices 13% on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026, a long-shot read despite active US military pressure.
- Camp David talks and a military buildup have not shifted the market toward a near-term diplomatic breakthrough; the price is consistent with stalled diplomacy as described.
- The confirmed US strikes on Iranian targets reported in Story 28 add coercive pressure, but markets are not pricing a rapid capitulation on the nuclear file.
- Resolution via UMA oracle requires a formal Iranian commitment to end enrichment, a specific and verifiable standard that constrains the contract's upside.
- Iran uranium enrichment deal stays a long shot at 12 percent Polymarket 12%
- Polymarket prices just 12% on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026, keeping this a heavy long shot despite intense diplomatic pressure.
- Trading volume on this contract surged 3,167% day over day, signaling a large spike in fresh attention as Trump-Iran rhetoric escalated sharply over the weekend.
- A companion Polymarket contract on the Iranian regime falling before 2027 sits at only 6%, suggesting markets do not expect military action to produce regime change.
- Resolution requires a verified Iranian agreement to halt enrichment; the gap between heated rhetoric and the 12% price reflects deep market skepticism that threats translate to a deal.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-4CKJ2D3T77",
"slug": "iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31",
"question": "Will Iran agree to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"iran-nuclear",
"diplomacy",
"2026-resolution",
"trump-administration",
"middle-east"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1519549,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 29,
"rcg_caps": [
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}