Will Iran agree to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 21.0% | $9.5K | $515K | C | 0xff68b3…58df |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Iran uranium enrichment deal by year-end wavers at 16 percent Polymarket 16%
- Polymarket prices only 16% on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026.
- Nine consecutive nights of US strikes and Khamenei's explicit rejection of a ceasefire are consistent with the low 16% pricing.
- Iran simultaneously signaling ongoing diplomatic exchanges with the US via Rubio creates a cross-current the market is not yet resolving upward.
- Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle; a formal enrichment-halt announcement by any recognized authority before December 31 would settle YES.
- Iran uranium enrichment halt by year-end holds below quarter odds Polymarket 21%
- Polymarket prices a 21% probability that Iran agrees to end uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026.
- Nine straight nights of US airstrikes and Khamenei rejecting ceasefire terms are consistent with the low 21% probability; talks have collapsed.
- The Polymarket contract on Iranian regime survival (CM-EVT-QNQ4VPVP80) sits at 10% for regime fall before 2027, suggesting the market prices continued conflict rather than resolution.
- Resolves via Polymarket UMA oracle; the enrichment halt must be formally agreed and verifiable to settle YES.
- Iran enrichment end by year-end wavers near long odds Polymarket 29%
- Polymarket prices 29% odds on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026.
- IAEA inspection visits proceeding under a preliminary deal are a positive step, but the market's sub-30% pricing reflects deep skepticism about a full enrichment halt.
- Companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-73D6P1DKY8) prices only 1% on an enrichment end by June 30, confirming the market sees any deal as a second-half-2026 possibility at best.
- Resolves via Polymarket uma_oracle; requires a formal Iranian agreement to cease enrichment activity, not merely inspection access.
- Iran uranium enrichment end by December holds below one-in-three Polymarket 29%
- Polymarket prices 29% on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31, resolving via uma_oracle.
- IAEA inspection visits represent a procedural step, and the market is not treating this as a near-certain path to full enrichment cessation.
- The companion Polymarket contract on Iran ending enrichment by June 30 sits at only 2%, confirming the market sees any deal as a second-half-2026 possibility at best.
- Resolves via uma_oracle on public agreement announcement; the 27-percentage-point gap between June 30 (2%) and December 31 (29%) captures the market's view that talks will be slow.
- Iran enrichment end by December pricing holds near a coin flip Polymarket 46%
- The Polymarket prediction market prices 46% on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026.
- Republican criticism of the MoU and unresolved technical gaps are consistent with a market that refuses to price a done deal despite the Islamabad signing ceremony.
- The deal calls for diluting Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile at minimum, stopping short of full enrichment cessation, which the 54% no-pricing reflects.
- The June 30 enrichment-end contract (CM-EVT-73D6P1DKY8) sits at only 24%, revealing the market assigns far higher probability to a December outcome than a June one, a clear term structure discount.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-4CKJ2D3T77",
"slug": "iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31",
"question": "Will Iran agree to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"iran-nuclear",
"uranium-enrichment",
"geopolitics",
"trump",
"2026",
"diplomacy-agreement"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 514712,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 26,
"rcg_caps": [
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}