Will Iran agree to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? [ resolved 2026-06-30 ]
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | $174K | $2.37M | C | 0x9d3f02…75c7 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Iran ends uranium enrichment by June 30 pricing holds deep discount Polymarket 24%
- Polymarket prices Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30 at just 24%, a steep discount to the broader deal probability.
- Trump's ultimatum on inspections suggests enrichment cessation is a harder ask than a general deal framework, and the market reflects that gap.
- The broader US-Iran deal by June 30 contract (CM-EVT-LG47Z78CF2) sits at 51%, making enrichment-end roughly half as likely as any deal.
- Resolves via UMA oracle; a formal public commitment to halt enrichment, not just inspection access, is required for settlement.
- Iran uranium enrichment halt by June 30 breaks away at 21 percent Polymarket 21%
- Polymarket puts only 21% on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30, despite Iran releasing deal-framework details.
- The 60-day nuclear talks structure disclosed by Iran implies enrichment decisions are deferred beyond June 30, directly consistent with the low 21% probability.
- The broader US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 contract sits at 28%, the gap between 28% and 21% isolates the specific enrichment-halt condition as the harder ask.
- Resolves via UMA oracle; Iran must formally agree to cease all uranium enrichment, not merely enter talks, to settle YES by June 30.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-june-30/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-june-30 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-june-30") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-73D6P1DKY8",
"slug": "iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-june-30",
"question": "Will Iran agree to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"iran-nuclear",
"geopolitics",
"trump",
"uranium-enrichment",
"international-agreements",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 2368908,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 10,
"rcg_caps": [
"discretionary_trigger_no_source",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}