Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? [ resolves 2026-04 – 2026-12 ]
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026 | 2026-04-30 | 0.1% | — | $3.75M | C | 0x5d3782…f44d | ||
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026 | 2026-05-31 | 0.1% | — | $5.03M | C | 0xd39905…12ef | ||
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 10.0% | $56K | $3.28M | C | 0x6cb3ec…8ead | ||
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026 | 2026-07-31 | 16.0% | $9.7K | $154K | C | 0xc11f41…e480 | ||
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 37.0% | $10K | $1.44M | C | 0xe846dd…cafa |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-Z3K4DFFZY1",
"slug": "iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by",
"question": "Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"iran-nuclear",
"diplomatic-agreement",
"2026",
"middle-east",
"nonproliferation"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 13645641,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 41,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}