Will Iran charge fees for passage through the Strait of Hormuz by 2026? [ resolves 2026-07 – 2026-12 ]
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 15 | 2026-07-16 | 0.1% | — | $569K | C | 0x75dd98…ef15 | ||
| July 31 | 2026-07-31 | 3.9% | $2.1K | $185K | C | 0x3029c3…5b9f | ||
| August 31 | 2026-08-31 | 38.0% | $4.4K | $386K | C | 0xceb73b…ccee | ||
| October 31 | 2026-10-31 | 56.0% | $2.5K | $133K | C | 0xb818eb…83c9 | ||
| December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 59.0% | — | $1.8K | C | 0xed7a65…7238 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.”
A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify.
A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify).
Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria:
1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented.
2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun.
Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official announcements from the government of Iran from rules text · editorial
- consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/iran-charges-hormuz-fees-byptptpt-20260625175035466/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/iran-charges-hormuz-fees-byptptpt-20260625175035466 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("iran-charges-hormuz-fees-byptptpt-20260625175035466") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-HLXZV06QT0",
"slug": "iran-charges-hormuz-fees-byptptpt-20260625175035466",
"question": "Will Iran charge fees for passage through the Strait of Hormuz by 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"iran",
"strait-of-hormuz",
"sanctions-and-trade",
"2026",
"shipping-policy"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1274140,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 26,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official announcements from the government of Iran",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}