Iran leadership change by April 30? [ resolves 2026-03 – 2026-12 ]

Iran leadership change by December 31?

polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date

polymarket 6 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Iran leadership change by March 31	2026-03-31	0.1%	—	$3.23M	C	`0xcc0792…8027`
Iran leadership change by April 30	2026-04-30	0.2%	—	$4.96M	C	`0xb41266…6793`
Iran leadership change by May 31	2026-05-31	0.1%	—	$3.41M	C	`0x2f6a54…d6b7`
Iran leadership change by June 30	2026-06-30	4.9%	$88K	$1.81M	C	`0xb196a1…4291`
Iran leadership change by December 31	2026-12-31	28.0%	$28K	$2.68M	C	`0x377e7f…5607`
Iran leadership change by March 13	2026-12-31	0.1%	—	—	C	`0x352559…884a`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	uncommitted	not provided	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 6 markets · share this text

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/iran-leadership-change-by/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/iran-leadership-change-by.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("iran-leadership-change-by")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-TYRP27H901",
  "slug": "iran-leadership-change-by",
  "question": "Iran leadership change by April 30?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "geopolitics",
    "iran",
    "leadership-succession",
    "2026",
    "middle-east"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 6,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 16093621,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 10,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
    "adversarial_ground_truth"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": null,
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →