Will Iran's leadership change by 2026? [ resolves 2026-03 – 2026-12 ]
Iran leadership change by December 31?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 13 | 2026-03-18 | 0.1% | — | — | C | 0x352559…884a | ||
| March 31 | 2026-04-01 | 0.1% | — | $3.23M | C | 0xcc0792…8027 | ||
| April 30 | 2026-05-01 | 0.2% | — | $4.96M | C | 0xb41266…6793 | ||
| May 31 | 2026-06-01 | 0.1% | — | $3.41M | C | 0x2f6a54…d6b7 | ||
| June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | $40K | $2.93M | C | 0xb196a1…4291 | ||
| December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 22.0% | $31K | $2.87M | C | 0x377e7f…5607 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Iran leadership change by June 30? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| closed | Iran leadership change by May 31? | polymarket | 2026-06-01 | — |
| closed | Iran leadership change by April 30? | polymarket | 2026-05-01 | — |
| closed | Iran leadership change by March 31? | polymarket | 2026-04-01 | — |
| closed | Iran leadership change by March 13? | polymarket | 2026-03-18 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (5 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/iran-leadership-change-by/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/iran-leadership-change-by |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("iran-leadership-change-by") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-TYRP27H901",
"slug": "iran-leadership-change-by",
"question": "Will Iran's leadership change by 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"geopolitics",
"iran",
"leadership-succession",
"2026",
"middle-east"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 17414691,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 10,
"rcg_caps": [
"discretionary_trigger_no_source",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}