Will Iran develop a nuclear weapon before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
Iran Nuke before 2027?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran Nuke before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 3.2% | $2.0K | $1.22M | C | 0x8bdeac…4c81 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
- Iran nuclear weapon before 2027 holds near long-shot odds Polymarket 4%
- Polymarket puts 4% on Iran developing a nuclear weapon before 2027, resolving via UMA oracle.
- Trump's stated goal of nuclear prevention and the Camp David national security meeting (Story 11) are consistent with the market's view that weaponization remains unlikely near-term.
- The US-Iran framework agreement story (Story 27) and Iran's 'major round of fighting' posture (Story 19) point in opposite directions; the 4% pricing reflects deep uncertainty without resolution.
- Companion Kalshi contract on the US reopening its embassy in Iran sits at 4%, suggesting the market prices both war escalation and diplomatic breakthrough as low-probability tail events.
- Iran nuclear weapon before 2027 stays a long shot Polymarket 4%
- The Polymarket contract on Iran developing a nuclear weapon before 2027 prices at 4%, pricing the scenario as a remote tail risk despite active military and diplomatic tensions.
- Israeli defense officials flag narrowing Iranian options under sanctions pressure, but the Polymarket contract at 4% suggests the market does not interpret this as a credible near-term nuclear breakout.
- A companion Kalshi contract on the U.S. and Iran reaching a final nuclear deal by 2026 has no live price, leaving the diplomatic resolution pathway unquantified.
- Resolves via UMA oracle; nuclear weapon development by Iran would need independent verification before year-end 2026, a very high evidentiary bar in the available timeline.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/iran-nuke-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/iran-nuke-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("iran-nuke-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-RV9Z73GLB0",
"slug": "iran-nuke-before-2027",
"question": "Will Iran develop a nuclear weapon before 2027?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"nuclear-proliferation",
"iran",
"middle-east",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1223948,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 16,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"discretionary_trigger_no_source",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}