Will the ISM Services PMI for July 2026 be released by August 5, 2026? [ resolves 2026-08-05 (1D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| < 50.0 | 2026-08-05 | 0.9% | $174 | $2.6K | A | 0xc23769…949b | ||
| Between 50.0 and 50.9 | 2026-08-05 | 0.2% | $100 | $532 | A | 0xca0e03…d802 | ||
| Between 51.0 and 51.9 | 2026-08-05 | 4.5% | $140 | $629 | A | 0x011cd6…b0c7 | ||
| Between 52.0 and 52.9 | 2026-08-05 | 6.2% | $140 | $1.5K | A | 0x06cc06…bb56 | ||
| Between 53.0 and 53.9 | 2026-08-05 | 18.0% | $1.4K | $11K | A | 0xc0c1b0…7c06 | ||
| Between 54.0 and 54.9 | 2026-08-05 | 39.0% | $1.7K | $11K | A | 0x9f7b3b…2442 | ||
| Between 55.0 and 55.9 | 2026-08-05 | 35.3% | $582 | $2.0K | A | 0x468fa9…f650 | ||
| Between 56.0 and 56.9 | 2026-08-05 | 7.0% | $193 | $1.0K | A | 0xc7a4b0…34f3 | ||
| Between 57.0 and 57.9 | 2026-08-05 | 0.9% | $656 | $1.1K | A | 0xc094df…b80b | ||
| At least 58.0 | 2026-08-05 | 2.3% | $277 | $1.5K | A | 0x09ac55…bf79 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This is a market about the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for July 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for July 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on August 5, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Services PMI registered 53.6 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Services PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Services PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/ sources (5) · single authority
- ismworld.org venue-listed
- ismworld.org venue-listed
- ISM Services PMI Report On Business from rules text · editorial
- https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/ from rules text · editorial
- https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/ from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/ism-services-pmi-july-2026-20260710153544980/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/ism-services-pmi-july-2026-20260710153544980 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("ism-services-pmi-july-2026-20260710153544980") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-RYRC9QPYV3",
"slug": "ism-services-pmi-july-2026-20260710153544980",
"question": "Will the ISM Services PMI for July 2026 be released by August 5, 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"economy",
"ism-services-pmi",
"us-economic-indicators",
"manufacturing-services",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 33037,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Institute for Supply Management (ISM)",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "ismworld.org",
"url": "https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ismworld.org",
"url": "https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ISM Services PMI Report On Business",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}